Hawaiian residents can expect a relatively dry weekend ahead, with the best chances for showers focusing on leeward areas and higher elevations. Trade winds are expected to make a comeback next week, which could stir up a wetter pattern as they gain strength by Tuesday. Light southerly winds are currently holding sway over the western half of the state, with southeasterlies persisting across the eastern islands, according to the National Weather Service.
The forecast discussion points to a warm front north of the islands that's on its way out, chased away by an incoming front from the west. The weather this weekend is looking to be a bit carbon copy, with southeasterly flows likely generating thicker clouds and shower activity mainly focusing on southeast-facing coasts and the mauka slopes of Maui County and the Big Island. Despite this, don't expect a washout; the mid-level ridge should work hand in hand with drier air to keep any shower activity to a minimum over the weekend, as reported by the National Weather Service.
For those sick of the sticky, muggy air, there's some good news on the horizon. "Warm and muggy conditions will hang on for another day or so as this gentle southerly flow maintains elevated afternoon mid to upper 60 dew points," National Weather Service note. But as trade winds begin to sweep back in early next week, we can expect a bit of a reprieve.
In aviation news, VFR conditions are ruling the skies in a stable pattern that's keeping shower activity under wraps. "A weak surface ridge over the state will produce light to moderate southerly winds across the western islands and southeasterly winds across the eastern islands today," the National Weather Service report states. And, for beachgoers, the High Surf Advisory is in effect until 6 PM HST this evening for a swath of the state's coastlines.
Today, a high-pressure ridge over the islands will move north and weaken by tonight and Sunday as another front approaches. This will bring light to moderate southerly winds to the western islands until trade winds strengthen. A Small Craft Advisory is expected to be issued for much of the marine areas next week due to strong trade winds, as reported by the National Weather Service.
The northwest swell is decreasing, but another northwest swell is expected early next week, which could bring surf back to advisory levels on north and west-facing shores. Surf will remain small on south-facing shores, while east shore surf is expected to increase from Sunday night, likely reaching above normal levels by Tuesday as trade winds strengthen, as per the National Weather Service.
