According to the latest forecast in Pittsburgh, Pittsburghers can enjoy a brief spell of dry conditions before rainfall marks its return later this afternoon and into the evening. The National Weather Service Pittsburgh Area Forecast Discussion, published early this morning, suggests that "Dry weather is expected through most of today, with shower chances returning late this afternoon and overnight." It seems the city will hold on to seasonable temperatures as it rides through several days of sporadic showers.
The forecast noted that we will see relatively strong radiation cooling this morning due to limited cloud coverage and light wind. As the ridging transitions over the region, dry conditions are projected to pause as the weather shifts gears later this afternoon. With a surface low-pressure system crossing over from the Midwest into the Great Lakes region by tonight, rain showers are timed to begin affecting areas around ZZV by 20z and reaching Pittsburgh near 00z. Significant rain, however, might hold off a bit longer as moisture struggles to saturate a dry lower atmosphere until after 8 pm.
Monday doesn't promise much change in conditions, as the low hovers and the upper trough stay put to the west. Southwesterly winds will keep things moderately warm, and without heavy rainfall, Pittsburgh could see temperatures a smidgen higher than today. Yet, when the evening rolls around, an increase in rain/snow showers is expected mainly in the city's north. However, any accumulated snow will be minimal due to limited moisture and warm ground, according to the National Weather Service.
As we approach midweek, the weather narrative remains consistent with a gradual eastward shift of the trough. Tuesday's temperatures are set to mirror those of the preceding days, albeit "a few degrees cooler," as stated by the National Weather Service. Unsettled conditions persist, with a focus on rain chances over the weekend, though forecasters are wrestling with some ensemble model uncertainties. The long-term outlook maintains seasonable temperature trends through Wednesday, with a warm-up possibly on the horizon as we approach the weekend.
The aviation sector should count on VFR, which is expected throughout the day at all ports as ridging transitions over the region. Later, a boost in shower activity will affect visibility. There's a 50% chance of MVFR by mid-evening north of KPIT, while actions at all ports have a 90% chance of lower conditions after midnight. These periodic precipitation patterns could introduce some scheduling spice into the aviation mix, extending well throughout the week.
No advisories or warnings are on tap in Pennsylvania, Ohio, or West Virginia, as noted by the NWS Pittsburgh in their routine update. So, Pittsburgh, while the umbrellas might need to be ready, it appears as though any significant weather disruptions will be holding off at least until the rain checks in later this afternoon.
