Pittsburgh residents can briefly enjoy a calm before the storm with today's warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, per the National Weather Service Pittsburgh, PA, weather forecast. However, the respite will be short-lived as rain and gusty winds are expected to roll in tonight, possibly with thunderstorms and strong wind gusts on Wednesday. The transient warmth of today, with highs in the 50s and 60s, will give way to much cooler temperatures and snow as Wednesday night progresses into Thursday.
Cloud cover is predicted to scatter into the afternoon, which might limit the day's heating potential. Nonetheless, with a healthy sun angle and persistent warm advection, temperatures should manage to climb into the 60s, especially from Pittsburgh and southward. The dry air and wind conditions have led to a Special Weather Statement issued for southwest PA and northern WV through 11 PM tonight due to low relative humidity and gusty winds, which could increase the risk of wildfires.
As the evening sets in, low pressure from the southern Plains is forecasted to move into the Great Lakes region by Wednesday. This will result in strong pressure falls, notably from midnight to early Wednesday morning, which might bring about downsloping on the ridges' western flanks. Specifically, eastern Tucker County, WV, is already under a Wind Advisory from this evening through Wednesday evening, with the National Weather Service indicating a near 100% probability for winds exceeding 40 knots and a "50% chance" for exceeding 50 knots in the area.
As the low approaches, moisture and falling atmospheric pressure will lead to a downpour commencing past midnight. A breather from the rain and some sunshine on Wednesday might lead to better destabilization before the cold front sweeps through, increasing the odds for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon. Concerns linger over potential severe weather, with "damaging wind" cited as the primary concern, although large hail and an isolated tornado are also possibilities. The forecast indicates a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms across most regions. Regarding precipitation, current estimations project up to an inch of rainfall in some areas, though significant hydrologic impacts are not anticipated.
The longer-range outlook for Thursday night through Monday suggests a period of dry weather on Friday, with another shot at precipitation over the weekend—light rain or snow showers, depending on the precise track of a weak weather disturbance. Temperatures are expected to hover around seasonal averages, with a warming trend beginning early next week. VFR conditions should persist through Tuesday for aviation, with increased chances for MVFR conditions by early Wednesday morning as the rain advances.
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