The National Weather Service in Sacramento has issued a forecast that signals a shift to more active weather conditions midweek, which are expected to persist into the early parts of next week. According to the weather discussion by the NWS, residents in Sacramento and the surrounding regions should brace for a series of systems that will introduce moderate to heavy rain, possible isolated thunderstorms, heavy snowfall, elevated winds, and consequently major travel disruptions.
The calm before the storm will feature partly to mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures today with south-southwest winds picking up, reaching gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Strongest winds with the initial push today are anticipated across the Sacramento Valley and nearby foothills, the NWS notes. A winter storm warning is already in place from this evening into Thursday for several areas including the West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada and the Shasta Lake Area.
As the weather system intensifies on Wednesday, wind gusts may reach 25 to 35 mph in the Delta and the Valley, while northern regions may experience gusts between 45 to 55 mph, and some mountain areas could see gusts up to 65 mph. Thunderstorm chances for Wednesday remain low due to limited instability, but Thursday could see a slight increase in activity with potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and lightning accompanying the thunderstorms. The heavy precipitation is slated to begin Wednesday, particularly along the Sierra and southern Cascades, with the NWS outlining probabilities of rain exceeding 1.0 inches in the Valley sitting between 15 to 30 percent, and a jump to 60 to 80 percent for the foothills and northern Sacramento Valley.
Snow levels are expected to fluctuate throughout the event, dropping from an initial range of 4500 to 5500 feet to around 2500 to 3500 feet by Thursday. Snowfall projections remain significant, with 4 to 12 inches possible above 3000 feet in the Coast Range and Shasta County mountains, and up to 2 feet on higher peaks. In the Sierra and southern Cascades, 1 to 3 feet of snow is possible above 4000 feet, with up to 4 feet on the highest peaks. Additionally, the likelihood of snowfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour is expected to peak at 40 to 70 percent along the Sierra and southern Cascades on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The inclement weather is forecasted to ease briefly toward the end of the week, but another trough moving through the region over the weekend into early next week suggests that additional rainfall, wind gusts, and potential thunderstorms may be on the horizon. With daytime highs expected to remain below average, residents are encouraged to prepare for the cool, wet, and windy conditions forecasted. Aviation impacts also anticipate VFR conditions to shift after 06Z Wednesday, with MVFR/IFR conditions due to rain in the Valley, and snow in the mountainous areas. The NWS advises that the public should take time now to prepare for adverse weather impacts, monitor forecasts for updates, and have reliable means to receive weather and travel alerts.
