According to the National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA, Pittsburgh residents can expect a continuation of warm weather with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances today and into early Monday. The unseasonably high temperatures are set to persist, breaking records as minimum temperatures (MinT) have reached new highs at both Pittsburgh International Airport (PIT) and Wheeling, WV (HLG). PIT tied its daily record for highest MinT at 60 degrees Fahrenheit, while HLG set a new record with 65 degrees Fahrenheit.
Today, a surface low pressure is expected to deepen in the Midwest and make its way towards the Great Lakes. This movement will increase warm air advection due to a southerly flow. As a result, the area will see a rise in precipitation starting from the south and west after 4 a.m. Shower coverage increases on Sunday mornings, reported the National Weather Service. The forecast suggests widespread shower activity may limit potential thunderstorm instability for much of the day.
Moving into Sunday evening, a slow-moving cold front in conjunction with an upper-level shortwave may intensify shower and storm chances. However, there's uncertainty regarding the extent of severe weather threats and the exact timing of the frontal passage. If the front is both faster and we can find ourselves near the 75th percentile or better for CAPE, it will be possible to get severe storms into much of the region, the forecast said. The greatest possibilities for severe storms currently appear to be in the western parts of the region, with potential risks including wind damage, hail, and an isolated tornado.
Heading into Monday, the eastward progression of the cold front is anticipated to pick up, which could reduce the region's risk of severe weather Monday morning. Additionally, a consensus among models forecasts above-normal temperatures for Sunday and Monday. However, a cool-down is probable starting Monday night and leading into Tuesday. Nevertheless, warmer weather is expected to return from Wednesday through Friday, with the potential for heavy rainfall later into the week. "There looks to be potential for a boundary to stall across the Ohio Valley beginning late-week and lasting into the weekend," according to the National Weather Service, which could lead to high water impacts in certain areas.
Regarding aviation, VFR conditions are projected for the nighttime hours, but rain will likely bring MVFR conditions starting around 12z at Zanesville, OH (ZZV) and spreading eastward. Following this rain, another wave of showers and potential storms could affect visibility and ceiling heights on Sunday evening.
