The latest weather updates from the National Weather Service indicate a mixed bag for Baltimore residents as a cold front is set to move through the area tonight, followed by high pressure building northward on Sunday. In a report published early this morning, the NWS Baltimore/Washington D.C. office detailed the expected weather patterns over the coming days, including the progression of this cold front and its eventual impact on the region.
Despite imminent changes, Saturday is expected to remain largely unaffected, with dry conditions and temperatures rising boldly into the 80s. As the National Weather Service explains, a "prominent cap around 700 mb" should keep storm development at bay for the majority of the day. However, the forecast notes the possibility of storms forming along the Maryland/Pennsylvania border, which later in the afternoon and evening, could "produce very strong winds" given the atmospheric conditions.
Overnight transitions include the southward drift of the frontal boundary, which will shift winds to the north. While most areas will experience dry conditions, the NWS does not rule out a "stray shower or storm in far northwestern portions of the forecast area." Lows are expected to be in the 60s, with cooler temperatures in the mountains and northern MD.
Come Sunday, all eyes will be on the skies as high pressure brings northerly winds before turning easterly throughout the day. The frontal boundary, potentially caught up in the southwestern forecast area, might stir up showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. The NWS cautions that "some small hail can't be ruled out with any that thunderstorms that form" in specific areas. Given the expected conditions, these thunderstorms may exhibit weak low-level shear and ample mid-level shear, which can contribute to storm intensity. Elsewhere, the blanket prediction is for mostly cloudy skies with highs ranging quite the gamut — from the upper 60s to near 80.
As Tuesday arrives, the cold front in question is expected to move south, affecting localized weather conditions. Although models vary in the front's precise location and whether it will completely move out before daybreak, the NWS indicates a tendency towards dry conditions, with high temperatures once again in the comfortable zone of the upper 70s to lower 80s. The following days hint at sunny dispositions, with Wednesday and Thursday maintaining above-normal temperatures and the potential for increased moisture and shower chances by Friday.
For maritime concerns, the National Weather Service has issued a Small Craft Advisory effective through midnight EDT tonight, signaling choppy conditions for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. Winds, currently from the southwest, are set to shift to the north-northwest after the cold front passes later tonight, with speeds expected to diminish on Sunday and potentially increase to the south by Monday evening.
Finally, regarding tides and potential coastal flooding, today's southwesterly flow could see areas like Annapolis and Havre de Grace nearing the Action stage this afternoon. However, tidal levels are predicted to taper off as northerly winds prevail after the passage of the frontal boundary, mitigating immediate flooding concerns.
