As the sun takes a brief encore before bowing out to incoming low pressures, Clevelanders are bracing for a mixed bag of weather. According to the National Weather Service Cleveland, after a stint of high pressure this morning, a westward low is set to usher in precipitation starting later Wednesday all the way through Thursday, and it's not going to make a swift exit.
The approaching system brings along the potential of a rain/snow mix, particularly where temperatures are slow to climb, "High pressure over the southern Great Lakes quickly shifts east while a gradually amplifying 500mb trough axis moves eastward through the Mississippi Valley," the NWS forecast notes. Isentropic lift will begin funneling precipitation into the coverage area after 5 PM, with initial low dew points in the teens to mid-20s, potentially creating a cooling effect on the front edge.
As for Thursday, the surface low is predicted to cut through the forecast area in the morning, which backtracks into northerly flows by evening. Some of this expected amount—"a third to a half inch of rain," with a slice of that as likely non-accumulating snow over Northwest Pennsylvania—could make for messy commutes, and the unsettled weather could well linger around until Friday. Expecting temperatures in the 40s today, a dip into the '30s overnight, and then a slight recovery to the upper 40s or lower 50s on Thursday.
In the short-term outlook for Thursday night through Saturday night, it's more of the same with sporadic showers, particularly east of I-71, as a secondary low huddle near the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, "with the modeled temperature profile suggests that precipitation should remain as all rain," however, they concede, "if the center of the low shifts south, there is a potential for some snow showers to mix in Thursday night." Northern winds promise to keep the mercury readings subdued, with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Friday inching slightly upward by Saturday.
Conditions marine-wise on Lake Erie are calm for the moment, but as the winds pick up on the lake's surface and shift northwesterly at 10-15 knots Thursday night, mariners might need to secure loose gear. "A Small Craft Advisory may be needed on Thursday afternoon into Friday, but will be highly dependent on the track of the low and how strong the gradient is over the lake," the NWS indicated. Waves could build to 1-3 feet along the southern lakeshore, they warn—pointing to continued choppiness potentially through Saturday.
Long-term forecasts hint at a return to more spring-like conditions, with peaks of sunshine and temperatures climbing into the 60s by Monday. Before another low swirling towards the Great Lakes might justify keeping those umbrellas handy a little longer.
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