The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a comprehensive forecast for Ohio, detailing the expected weather patterns from this weekend through the coming week. The region will, first and foremost, see the exit of a cold front this morning, followed by high pressure building into the area.
According to the latest area forecast discussion, after the cold front, Ohioans can expect a cool late May day with cold advection in west to northwest flow and some clouds across the region. This will cap temperatures with a mix of 50s and 60s for the day. As the upper trough nudges eastward from tonight into Sunday, clearer skies are anticipated, providing a slight temperature increase for Sunday, reaching into the 60s and 70s.
Moving into the short term, from Sunday night through Tuesday night, the influence of a ridge is expected to bring fair weather and primarily clear to partly cloudy skies. With the ridge axis shifting over from the western Great Lakes towards New England, Ohio is set to experience a period of warming. The forecast discussion from the National Weather Service Cleveland predicts milder lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s are expected around daybreak Tuesday. It should be followed by late afternoon highs reaching mainly the 80s in northern Ohio.
However, as the week progresses, the weather may turn less stable. By Wednesday, periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon through Friday, with the potential for torrential rainfall and flash flooding, especially on Friday. The culprit: a trough approaching from the northern Rockies that will bring a cold front through the region. Temperatures should remain warm until Friday, when a slight cooling trend kicks in following the passage of the cold front.
Aviation interests should take note of the changing conditions. Initially, after the cold front, ceilings have fallen to a mix of MVFR and IFR with cold advective flow over Lake Erie, with IFR conditions expected to become more limited through the morning. As the high-pressure system moves in, VFR conditions will return and persist through Tuesday, with a possible shift on Wednesday in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
On Lake Erie, boating conditions were choppy this morning, necessitating a Small Craft Advisory remaining in effect through early afternoon for certain areas, and a Beach Hazards Statement for a high risk of rip currents along parts of the lakeshore. As winds diminish this evening, these advisories are expected to lift. Calmer conditions are anticipated to start on Sunday night and continue through the middle of next week.
