The forecast predicts some swings in weather patterns for the regions surrounding Columbus, Cincinnati, Wilmington, and beyond. Visibility conditions today could not be clearer, but the tempered blue of a calm sky might soon give way as the National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio, advises that high pressure will linger through this evening. However, things are expected to change come Tuesday. According to the forecast discussion released by the National Weather Service, low pressure will encroach on Tuesday, cutting through the serenity with showers and potential thunderstorms.
Moving into the near term forecast, light northeast winds at 10 mph or less are projected for the day, temperatures expected to hit a comfortable range between the upper 60s in the north and mid 70s in the south, meanwhile a stray short wave could shuffle through the area this afternoon ushering in some cloud cover and carrying a slim chance for a couple of showers or light sprinkles across the Tri-State area. Transitioning into the night, a narrow mid-level ridge is set to cross the region with a subsequent short wave trailing closely behind; this pattern points to widespread rain showers spreading into eastern Indiana, northern Kentucky, and the southwest Ohio region before dawn breaks on Tuesday.
As Tuesday unfolds, the potential for severe weather heightens, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening, hinging on whether the instability can develop northward amidst ongoing showers and persistent cloud cover. The same NWS forecast states, "The better threat for severe weather looks to be south of the Ohio River." Highs on Tuesday will vary from the lower 60s in the north to mid 70s south of the River. Residents, especially those with outdoor plans, would do well to keep an ear to the ground, or in this case, an eye on the horizon.
The subsequent long-term outlook remains somewhat unsettled; the upper level dance of highs and lows continues with a significant trough lodged over the Great Lakes pulling the strings through Thursday and Friday. The forecast remains dry after those cold showers, with no expected rain through the weekend despite model uncertainties. Local aviators should prepare for possible IFR to MVFR ceilings on Tuesday, with patchy conditions likely as the atmosphere dries out on Wednesday and Thursday. Stay informed on the latest flight conditions or any watches and warnings that might snap into effect as the week progresses.
