Baltimore residents should brace for a mix of severe weather conditions today, as a cold front makes its southward progression across the region. According to the National Weather Service, the area will witness ample lift for showers and thunderstorms due to an approaching shortwave trough and low pressure tracking eastward from Ohio.
The most unstable air, bringing a greater threat of severe weather, including isolated tornadoes and flash flooding, lies south of US-50. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to generate heavy rainfall at intense rates, though storm movement should mitigate the risk of prolonged downpours. Nonetheless, a flood watch has been issued from 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening for multiple parts of Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. The overall severe weather threat is considered more pronounced than the risk of flash floods.
Ahead of the midweek, a respite seems to come with the shortwave trough's departure, which will inhibit convection through much of Monday. Another trough will cross the region late Tuesday afternoon, with dry air advection likely limiting rain and storm potential, as per the forecast discussion.
Looking towards the latter half of the week, high pressure building from the west will usher in dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday - an ideal stretch for those worn by the storms. The forecast also indicates a slight uptick in temperatures and humidity, with the mercury potentially nudging 90 degrees Thursday as winds shift southerly. Come Friday, the weather pattern holds a note of uncertainty, with chances of showers and thunderstorms increasing on Saturday if advancing weather fronts from the northwest or buckling fronts from the southeast pick up pace.
In aviation news, pilots will want to keep an eye on the skies with multiple rounds of showers and storms expected today. The metro terminals have their eyes on a 23-01Z window, particularly CHO airport, which might see extended periods of storm activity through the evening hours. Air travel stabilizes midweek under fair skies and favorable high-pressure conditions.
On the waters, sailors might need to prepare for Small Craft Advisory conditions today, while the midweek outlook promises lighter winds and dry conditions Wednesday into Thursday. The Marine section has yet to issue specific advisories but will keep the community posted should conditions change.
