The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a forecast that includes, rising temperatures, and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms today through Wednesday. A warm front is expected to lift north across the region, ushering in muggy conditions and higher dewpoints, signaling a tropical-like air mass moving in. The anticipated showers could become scattered to widespread later in the morning and into the afternoon, with the possibility of thunderstorms especially as daytime heating adds energy to the atmosphere. The NWS Cleveland forecast discussion notes that "precipitable water values will increase today up to 1.9 inches with the passage of the warm front."
Wednesday is set to be particularly interesting with the chance of strong to severe storms developing later in the day and into the evening as a surface low-pressure system moves through the central Great Lakes region, and a cold front crosses the Ohio Valley. Despite the ill-defined nature of the incoming weather, the stage is set for "showers and embedded storms to develop throughout the day today," according to NWS Cleveland. Precipitation will be watched closely as it may lead to localized heavy rainfall, potentially impacting the Marion to Cleveland to Erie line, southeastwardly.
The NWS Cleveland forecast discussion further elaborates that "the MLCAPE values up to 1000 J/KG, weak shear and steering flow is a good setup for showers and embedded storms to develop throughout the day today." Temperatures are expected to vary across the region, with cooler temperatures where rain persists and warmer weather predicted for northwest Ohio.
Aviation interests will mostly experience VFR conditions outside of the scattered rain showers and thunderstorms predicted for today and early evening. Airfields that observe rainfall may experience some patchy MVFR fog along with potential low stratus development. NWS Cleveland suggests, "Winds will become southerly to south-southwesterly 5 to 10 knots this morning and continue through the end of this TAF period." Caution is advised for potential brief wind gusts from heavier thunderstorms impacting air travel.
The marine forecast for Lake Erie anticipates low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes to elevate winds to southwesterly at 15-20 knots by Wednesday, with attention drawn to potential small craft advisories and beach hazards. As the situation develops, "periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday," wraps up the NWS forecast. High pressure is expected to settle by the weekend, with a forecasted climb in temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
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