Honolulu residents can expect a breezy and stable weather pattern over the weekend, extending into the next week, with trade winds picking up speed and delivering limited showers mainly to windward and mauka areas. According to the Honolulu Weather Forecast issued by the National Weather Service, high pressure northeast of Hawaii is driving these conditions, ensuring that the typical lush landscapes of the windward side receive their share of precipitation. Clouds are expected to move westward with scattered showers primarily in the morning but drying out by the afternoon.
If you're planning to be outside soon, expect more of the same weather tonight through early Friday. Satellite and radar show a bit more moisture than usual, especially in the western part of the state, which could mean slightly wetter conditions, as reported by the National Weather Service. High clouds are moving over the islands, but they shouldn't affect the mostly nice weather at ground level.
As the weekend approaches, changes aloft will start to unfold. "The upper level trough is expected to move directly over the islands this weekend and form into a weak upper level low which will produce some instability across the state," the National Weather Service explains. Concurrently, as a surface high develops north of the state, trade wind flow across the islands is poised to strengthen. This typically leads to increased showers, but a limiting factor may be the availability of moisture, with drier air filtering in from the east.
The local aviation community should take heed of the current conditions. A stable, moderate to breezy trade wind flow will persist, spurring periods of MVFR ceiling and visibility in showers along windward slopes, particularly overnight and in the early morning hours. "AIRMET SIERRA has been issued for MTN OBSC due to clouds and showers building along windward slopes and will likely continue through the morning hours," the National Weather Service reported. While VFR conditions will generally prevail, the stable tradewind flow is expected to produce light turbulence below 7,000 feet.
For mariners, the forecasts suggest diligence as well. "High pressure far northeast of the islands will remain nearly stationary through the remainder of this week and bring moderate to locally strong trade winds," which means certain areas will need to heed a Small Craft Advisory in effect through at least Sunday for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island, as per the National Weather Service. Surf conditions are predicted to be mild along south-facing shores, with a small south swell anticipated to slightly boost surf heights early next week. On the east-facing shores, expect choppy surf to persist.
