Ohioans can expect a mix of weather conditions as they go about their weekend plans. According to an Area Forecast Discussion released by the National Weather Service in Cleveland, showers and thunderstorms started developing early this morning and are expected to push east as the day progresses. Specifically, the proliferation of showers and thunderstorms extended along a line from Erie County, Ohio, southwest towards Hancock County, Ohio, in the morning hours.
The National Weather Service noted, "The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged," despite the update required to shift the initiation line of showers and storms further west, indicating an earlier-than-anticipated arrival of convection. A low-pressure system over Quebec spurred a cold front eastward across the region, with the chance of thunder, though a general outlook suggests more noise than fury.
Temperatures will be in the low to mid-80s today, with Sunday expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s. That's good news for bargain hunters or beachgoers, as dewpoints are expected to hover in the 60s, making the high temps feel closer to the true mercury reading. Overnight lows will settle into the comfortable range of the low to mid-60s, providing some respite from the day's heat.
As the weekend wraps up, shifts in the atmosphere will result in increased chances of precipitation Sunday night into Monday, according to the NWS forecast. Instability values on Monday could reach around 1000-1500 J/kg, which could give rise to scattered thunderstorms. Although severe weather chances appear low given timing discrepancies between upper-level energy and peak instability, the higher confidence threat will be heavy rainfall with potential precipitation totals nearing 0.5-0.75".
Looking ahead to the middle of the week, the National Weather Service predicts dry conditions and temperatures returning to normal as high pressure builds. There's less certainty about the forecast for Thursday and Friday due to divergent model predictions; however, light rain chances have been introduced. The much-welcome break should feature milder and seasonal temperatures, with highs in the mid-80s and overnight lows dropping to the mid-60s.
The aviation and maritime sectors will also feel the effects of the passing cold front, with possible non-Visual Flight Rules (VFR) conditions and increased wave activity on Lake Erie. The National Weather Service's discussion should help both pilots and boaters navigate the choppy conditions expected to arise.
