The National Weather Service has provided an update on the weather conditions affecting the Columbus, Cincinnati, and Wilmington areas, and beyond. According to the latest NWS Area Forecast Discussion, an upper-level disturbance is expected to move slowly across the Ohio Valley today, maintaining the possibility for occasional showers and a chance for thunderstorms. On top of that, temperatures are set to warm up as we move through the midweek, with a persistent chance for showers and thunderstorms into the work week.
Early morning forecast adjustments signaled an increase in fog, specifically across some northern KY counties. The National Weather Service noted that, "A tricky visibility forecast, as showers are also developing in the same area may help mitigate some of the developing fog." This complex weather situation resulted in the decision not to issue a dense fog advisory, given the spotty nature of low visibility areas, despite some spots reporting visibility at 1/2 mile or lower.
For the near term, which extends until 6 PM this evening, we can expect scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon. "Areas along/southeast of I-71 will have the best chance for precip, with south central Ohio and northeast KY more widespread," the National Weather Service explains. The forecast also warns of a localized flood threat for south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky, with continued very muggy conditions and highs near 80 degrees.
In the short term, which covers the period from this evening through Monday evening, the forecast anticipates a slow-moving frontal boundary. This movement is, "bringing quiet weather, albeit potential for areas of fog/low stratus in the very moist low layers." Additionally, weather discussions from the National Weather Service warn of isolated heavy rain from slow-moving storms and efficient rainfall rates. For Monday, daytime highs are expected to be in the lower to mid-80s.
Looking at the longer-term outlook, Monday night and Tuesday could see a continued southwesterly flow, bringing showers and thunderstorms into the area. While instability and shear look weak, suggesting a low severe threat, the potential for heavy rain seems probable. Heat index values later in the week, particularly Wednesday, are expected to reach into the 90s, though not exceeding the 100-degree advisory criteria.
For those concerned with aviation impacts, the NWS warns of "several rounds of storms possible through Wednesday," which may lead to periods of MVFR and potentially IFR conditions due to storms. Plan accordingly as the weather continues to evolve throughout the Ohio Valley region this week.
