Residents of Baltimore and the surrounding regions are bracing for a mixed bag of weather conditions as the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal approach, according to the National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC. The forecast suggests that after the morning fog clears, increasing humidity and rising temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s can be expected. Later in the day, the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms increases, particularly near the Fredericksburg and Charlottesville areas. Fortunately, these weather disturbances are anticipated to be relatively mild, with little risk of severe weather or flooding.
Transitioning into Monday, the NWS predicts that while Chantal weakens as it moves north, a cold front will approach from the northwest. Moisture from Chantal will lift northward, contributing to the possibility of rain, especially across central Virginia. Despite the onset of tropical moisture and the main low remaining well to the south, forecasts indicate a moderate concentration of rain. For coastal areas like Annapolis, minor flooding may be indicated on the tide charts during overnight high tides, potentially creeping up to minor flood thresholds by early Monday.
Looking ahead, the NWS advises that Tuesday will bring more sunshine, which, combined with humid conditions, could push heat index values into the upper 90s or lower 100s. As the front moves into the area, it's likely to spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with some having the potential for localized flooding due to high precipitable water and warm cloud depths. "There are Marginal Risks for both severe storms and excessive rainfall," according to the National Weather Service.
Maritime concerns should not be overlooked, as evidenced by the Small Craft Advisories issued for the Chesapeake Bay, reflecting an anticipated increase in south-southeasterly flow. While winds may recede tonight, according to the NWS, some guidance indicates that elevated winds will remain in the middle bay into Monday. Showers and thunderstorms also pose risks to water through the upcoming week as a slow-moving frontal boundary lingers, possibly affecting normal marine operations.
As for the long-term outlook, it appears that Baltimore is in for a stormy stretch, with several shortwave energy bursts predicted, potentially resulting in numerous thunderstorm rounds, possibly severe. The NWS points to Thursday as a day of particular interest, indicating a higher chance for organized severe weather. The common theme for the week is to stay prepared for sudden showers and keep an eye on the sky.
