As we approach the weekend, Baltimore residents can expect a typical brew of summer instability, with the National Weather Service forecasting daily showers and thunderstorms due to a lingering weak front. According to the service's latest report, the unsettled weather pattern is likely to persist through the weekend. At the same time, early next week, a cold front is expected to sweep through the area, potentially stirring up more weather.
The near-term outlook suggests a slight elevation in the mercury compared to yesterday, with temperatures poised to ascend into the 80s to low 90s for most and the high 70s for those nestled in higher elevations. An associated moist air mass is brewing up not just warmer temperatures, but also contributing to warm dew points, effectively pushing heat indices into the uncomfortable mid to upper 90s for many. Expect afternoons to feature showers and storms, primarily west of the Blue Ridge, where the Storm Prediction Center has identified a marginal risk of severe weather. The National Weather Service advises that "Should convection initiate and become strong to severe, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard due to conditions favorable for downbursts."
The weekend's weather narrative remains unchanged, with weak high pressure building southwest and a low-pressure system and associated cold front rolling in from the central plains. These elements conspire to continue the pattern of afternoon showers and storms. Despite "weak forcing aloft, a warm and moist airmass will lead to plenty of instability across the forecast area," the National Weather Service predicts. By Sunday, the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms escalates, with concerns centered on damaging wind gusts.
Looking ahead into next week, Monday is marked as a "weather day" due to high PWATs (Precipitable Water) and moderate CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) conditions conducive to widespread thunderstorms. Despite this barrage of activity, an accompanying cloud cover from the convection and the advancing front could restrain daytime peaks to the mid-80s, offering slight relief from the more oppressive heat. Yet, risks loom for isolated flash floods or severe weather, necessitating close monitoring over the coming days.
For aviation interests, the Marine section predicts southerly winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the weekend, blowing 5 knots or less. However, mariners should maintain vigilance each afternoon when showers and thunderstorms heighten the risk of sudden weather-related hazards. Staying sea-wise is crucial, especially since some storms may be severe on Monday and require Special Marine Warnings (SMWs).
On the tidal front, expect a swell in water levels over the weekend as persistent southerly winds elevate tidal anomalies. Action stage tides are forecasted for most tidal locations, with select waterfronts like Annapolis projected to reach minor flooding at high tide by Sunday morning.
