Baltimore residents, brace yourselves for a day of severe weather as forecasted by the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC. A mix of potentially dangerous severe thunderstorms and flash flooding could hit the area later today as a cold front sweeps into the region. Dry conditions are expected to take hold later in the week, promising clearer skies by the weekend.
Despite a quiet start to the morning, the weather is expected to turn quickly, with threats of both severe thunderstorms and flash flooding increasing by the afternoon, according to the National Weather Service. The forecast discusses an "uncapped and unstable atmosphere" that could generate widespread storm activity, with the potential for damaging winds. However, large hail and tornadoes seem unlikely due to the weak low-level shear and a deeply saturated atmospheric profile.
About the severe thunderstorms, storms should be more organized into short line segments and clusters, and capable of producing damaging winds in water-loaded downdrafts, the National Weather Service said. Residents should prepare for a stormy day and evening, with a Flood Watch in effect from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through tonight for most of the area, signaling the potential for significant rainfall and flooding.
The service warns of appreciable instability and highly anomalous PWAT values that can lead to thunderstorms producing very high instantaneous rainfall rates. In a rare yet possible misstep, the fast storm motions might limit flash flooding somewhat, yet the environment remains highly conducive to significant water buildup. The National Weather Service foresees a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain within the Watch, with isolated areas possibly receiving even more substantial totals of 2-5 inches.
Aviation may also be impacted, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms possible at each site, causing temporary disruptions and necessitating Special Marine Warnings (SMWs) over the waters. Navigators should keep abreast of weather alerts. On the water, Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated to persist in parts of the Middle Bay, and mariners should exercise caution due to likely gusts accompanying the storms. Moving forward, dry and more stable conditions are expected to prevail from Wednesday through Saturday, with high pressure forecasted to usher in VFR conditions.
As residents of Baltimore and its surrounding regions look past the storm clouds, drier and more pleasant weather looms on the horizon for the coming days, including the 4th of July holiday. The National Weather Service's forecast points to a welcomed stretch of low humidity and sunnier skies as high pressure builds before another potential front encroaches early next week.
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