The National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC has issued an updated weather forecast for Baltimore, giving residents a heads up on this weekend's conditions. According to the forecast, a cold front over the Virginia Tidewater region is expected to keep moving southward. At the same time, surface high pressure builds briefly overhead Saturday and Sunday, positioned ahead of another cold front due to sweep through early next week.
There's a bit of atmospheric moodiness in the air today as patchy fog, which has already begun to form, could become locally dense at times. Although the National Weather Service doesn't seem to think it will be thick enough to warrant any warnings. The fog is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise. Still, there's a risk of seeing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with the main action occurring along and east of U.S. Route 15.
For those planning outdoor activities, be prepared for temperatures to hit the upper 80s or even around 90 in the hotter locations. The humidity, however, will make it feel like it's in the mid-90s. As we drift into the evening, the post-frontal easterlies will begin to relax, but there's the possibility that low-level stratus could roll in, primarily east of the Blue Ridge.
Over the weekend, it's going to be business as usual with temperatures staying steady through Friday. At night, though, there's an opportunity for the easterlies to settle down enough to give rise to some more of that patchy fog. As the front that's stretched out around the Virginian coast meanders towards the southeast U.S. coast, the prospect of convection lingers, albeit mainly west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains and possibly non-severe and short-lived. Sunday might raise the mercury a bit more, with some locales expecting temperatures reaching into the low 90s, and you're going to feel those high humidity levels.
As Monday rolls around, the weather plots to change as a shortwave and a weak frontal passage are forecasted to bring a few showers and possibly some storms, especially west of I-81. Meanwhile, the long-term outlook through Thursday presents a dynamic with a large question mark in the form of Tropical Storm Erin, which at this point appears to keep a safe distance offshore, possibly leaving the region on the dry side. Still, the weather service reminds folks to stay tuned to updates at hurricanes.gov, as currents can shift.
For aviation interests, the light winds and minimal cloud cover overnight could mean some visibility issues with fog at KCHO and KMRB until around 8-9 AM. Later in the day, isolated to scattered showers may impact flight operations during the 19-22Z timeframe, so keep an eye on those PROB30 groups for potential thunderstorm restrictions. The weekend should keep to VFR conditions during daylight hours, but be mindful of patchy fog at night and those easterly winds that are expected to stick around through Saturday before turning westerly on Sunday.
Mariners should not expect to deal with Small Craft Advisory conditions through the weekend, but will see easterly winds with gusts up to 15 knots as the front moves south. By Monday, northerly winds will sweep through the area, with storm chances seeming isolated over the waters. By Tuesday, increasing easterly winds might warrant keeping an eye on potential advisories, although thunder by that point is not expected.
The buoys are also telling a story of elevated tidal anomalies lingering through the week due to the recent full moon and light winds. While minor tidal flooding is not a concern at this time, higher-than-normal tides could prompt action particularly in Annapolis and potentially at Dahlgren/Alexandria.
.jpg){kind=link}