Summer in Baltimore means dealing with a cocktail of heat and humidity, but this weekend offers a slight respite from the usually oppressive conditions. According to the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC, a weak front down by the Carolina coast paired with high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic should lay the groundwork for decreased thunderstorm chances and continued late-summer warmth.
The weather pattern has resulted in a marine layer creeping in from the Atlantic, leading to some dramatic low cloud cover and potential drizzle, particularly for those east of U.S. 15. While the post-frontal air mass is drier, with precipitable water values hovering between 1.50 to 1.75 inches, the thermodynamic differences are minimal, maintaining an easterly to southeasterly flow through the day. The low clouds should burn off by mid to late morning, leaving behind what is mainly expected to be a sunny day.
Temperatures are anticipated to stay true to their mid-August norms, with the region likely to see mid to upper 80s, and perhaps some 90s in the warmer areas. Come Sunday, conditions are expected to be even warmer. "Aided by a shift to west-northwesterly flow in the column, a downsloping component to the winds will help carry temperatures into the low 90s," forecasts the National Weather Service. Yet change is on the horizon, with a cold front set to bring an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday evening. However, severe weather is considered unlikely due to modest instability and weak wind fields.
The start of the workweek brings a noticeable cool down and temporary relief from the heat as highs hover in the low to mid 80s. While there is the possibility of isolated showers, much of the day should be dry, punctuated by wind gusts of 10 to 15 mph from the northeast. A stalled front nearby does, however, warrant a continuing chance of overnight precipitation.
Looking out towards the long term, the high-pressure system making a move across the region will keep conditions fairly stable, with easterly winds keeping the weather relatively cool and damp through midweek. By the end of the week, attention will likely turn towards what will then be Hurricane Erin, currently not a threat to Baltimore but worth monitoring closely. In the meantime, coastal flooding remains a concern, with areas like Annapolis expected to approach or exceed minor flood for multiple upcoming tide cycles, as per the National Weather Service.
