As Cleveland braces for another wave of intense summer heat, the National Weather Service's latest forecast for Cleveland provides a detailed look at what's in store for the region. Today, temperatures are predicted to soar into the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints uncomfortably resting in the 60s, and possibly touching 70 degrees. This sticky scenario means that heat indexes will shoot up into the mid and upper 90s across northwest and north central Ohio, according to the National Weather Service, Cleveland's latest forecast.
In the meantime, high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast is keeping things dry, especially east of I-71, where the atmosphere remains capped. However, the increased low to mid-level moisture will start to creep across NW Ohio with up to 800 J/kg of ML CAPE in the mix. Despite the humidity and instability, the lack of significant surface convergence will likely limit storm development, but western counties might still see some action with a "low pop" on the radar.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, things stay hot, but the pressure starts to shift, allowing some shortwave energy to stir up the atmosphere across Michigan. What this means for Ohio is the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon when the lake breeze could kick up some additional showers in Northeast Ohio/Northwest Pennsylvania.
The arrival of a cold front later in the week promises some relief, as showers and thunderstorms are predicted to become more widespread from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong convergence along the front might lead to some heavy downpours, and with Precipitable Water (PW) values hovering around 2 inches, some local areas could see significant rain accumulation. Storm motion is anticipated to be in the 20-25 knot range, which could help with storm progression.
After the front's passage, temperatures dial back to the mid-80s on Wednesday before settling into the lower 80s with faltering dewpoints on Thursday. As high pressure retakes control, Thursday night could see some parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania experience more incredible lows in the mid-50s. While the weekend might bring back near-90 temperatures, a semblance of normalcy returns initially with dry conditions under the reign of high pressure.
On Lake Erie, things are predicted to stay relatively calm. Winds at 5 to 10 knots will continue until midweek when they shift westerly with the approaching front, backing to the northeast post-frontal transition. This could induce easterly flow by Friday. So, for all the sailors and maritime enthusiasts out there, steady sailing seems to be on the horizon, at least for the remainder of the week.
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