The National Weather Service in Cleveland issued a forecast this morning indicating a cold front is slated to move south across the region today. According to the NWS Area Forecast Discussion, residents can expect "additional convection spread southeastward" throughout the morning into the afternoon, with the possibility of a few stronger storms developing.
The report details that approximately 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 20-25 knots of effective shear could be conducive to storm formation, though the probability for severe weather remains low owing to a "relatively marginally-supportive environment." However, residents in northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania should still prepare to witness post-frontal showers and thunderstorms as the front is expected to clear the area by early afternoon.
As the front retreats towards the Ohio River on Monday, it is anticipated to usher in cooler temperatures for the start of the week, with highs hovering in the "upper 70s to low 80s." The likelihood of patchy fog come Monday morning was also noted, so drivers might want to take extra precautions while commuting.
Looking ahead, the forecast points to weak low pressure approaching the Midwest region on Tuesday, setting the stage for a warm front to cross northeast across the area. This could result in "at least a modest amount of instability" and the potential for "marginally organized severe convection Tuesday afternoon/evening," necessitating close monitoring of the evolving system. Post-frontal conditions may also bring lingering showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday.
Marine conditions on Lake Erie will follow a similar pattern, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect from this afternoon through Monday evening for regions near and east of The Islands, as waves are expected to build to 3-6 feet. Consequently, a Beach Hazards Statement has also been issued for those same areas. Weather conditions will also be ripe for waterspouts through early Monday morning.
.jpg){kind=link}