As the sun beats down on the Hawaiian archipelago, residents and visitors can expect to continue enjoying a rather dry and warm summer pattern, as reported by NWS Honolulu. The forecast outlines light to breezy trade winds for today, with an anticipation of slight drop-off in these winds tomorrow due to a northerly trough affecting the regional pressure gradient. Those opting for some shade on the windward side can expect the occasional light shower, while the Kona slopes of the Big Island might see a bit more action with scattered showers over the next couple of days.
This stable weather comes courtesy of a high-pressure system to the north and east of Hawaii. It's centered a humble 1,200 miles from Hilo and creates what's described as a "stable late August dry trade wind weather," as mentioned on NWS. The current conditions include lower than normal precipitable waters in Hilo, and such a lack of rain is set to persist across most windward areas. Those seeking respite from trade winds might get their wishes as the trough is expected to sag southward, reducing wind speeds over the next couple of days, as the pressure gradient weakens.
Although most can enjoy clear skies and typical summertime vibes, aviators should anticipate isolated MVFR conditions in showers, primarily windward and mauka. However, outside of these showers, VFR will remain dominant, and unlike the earth-bound, there are no AIRMETs currently in effect, providing some solace for those navigating the Hawaiian skies.
On the marine front, the ridge of high pressure has prompted a Small Craft Advisory for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The advisory is in place until 6 PM HST this evening, as per NWS Honolulu’s issuance. While not immediatey threatening, a series of small south swells are expected to arrive by Tuesday, which may cause a slight uptick in surf heights on the south shores through Friday. East-facing shores will keep their trade wind-driven chop, so surfers looking for smoother rides will likely be out of luck there.
In terms of fire weather, the existing conditions maintain an elevated concern. The trade winds, even in their weakened state, alongside the lower humidity, could foster the spread of wildfires. Yet the modest winds should dampen this risk, at least a tad. Looking forward, wind speeds are predicted to fall off, but the trades may regain their moderate pace by mid-week. Still, watchfulness remains high as inversion heights see little change, and the weather's whims could shift at a moment’s notice.
