Residents in Pittsburgh can expect a typical seasonal day with near-normal temperatures today, before things start heating up over the weekend. According to the National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA, the weather service's morning forecast suggests that the mercury will climb to the upper 80s by Saturday, with precipitation chances increasing over the weekend as a low-pressure system moves in from the west.
Today’s outlook remains dry, and despite a warm morning due to persistent cloud cover, temperatures are anticipated to reach normal highs, derived from the latest 500mb heights and thickness values. The weather service's models are showing sub 10% hourly PoPs over the day, indicating an overwhelmingly dry day. Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin to the east and high pressure to the west will have winds stemming from the northeast, before they start veering east by the evening.
Looking ahead to Friday, the city is set to enjoy continued dry weather, with temperatures on a slight rise (mid-80s). The overall atmospheric flow will maintain an easterly component, which seems to favor clear skies and higher temperatures for the region. The stability in this pattern is likely to result in clear aviation conditions, with VFR returns Friday afternoon with diurnal heating/mixing and cloud erosion as upper flow strengthens from the SW ahead of the next upper level, as reported by the weather service.
The outlook for the weekend and into next week, however, brings a shift in weather conditions. The approach of a cold front will usher in precipitation probabilities starting Saturday, and continuing into Sunday, with the chance for > 0.25 is 30%-40% for areas east of Pittsburgh and less than 25% chance to the west, the forecast elaborates. Subsequently, early next week is expected to bring cooler temperatures trailing the exit of the cold front, and conditions just right for lake-effect showers on Tuesday due to the disparity between the warm lake waters and cooler upper air temperatures.
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in place for Pennsylvania, Ohio, or West Virginia, in keeping with the largely dry and stable conditions predicted for the day. However, as the weekend approaches, it's worth keeping an eye on updates, especially as the aviation sector anticipates potential disruptions from showers and thunderstorms, likely favoring western PA and the WV higher terrain, which may result in localized IFR cigs amid cold advection in the post frontal environment, and an increase in surface winds from the west to northwest.
