The National Weather Service in Cleveland is preparing Ohioans for a series of atmospheric switches, with a cold front expected to bring a dip in temperatures and some wind-borne challenges. According to the latest forecast, a high-pressure system over the East Coast will give way to a low-pressure system deepening over the northern Great Lakes. A cold front is anticipated to drag across the area on Thursday, with a secondary cold front expected to follow on Friday.
Thursday's weather playbill features an upper-level trough making an exit stage right as an even stronger system takes the spotlight north of the Great Lakes. The weather service expects this atmospheric activity will drag a cold front into the region starting late Wednesday night with increasing precipitation chances into Thursday. Despite an increase in available moisture, expressed in Precipitable Water (PWAT) values ranging from 1.20-1.50", the cold front's brisk pace is likely to keep rainfall totals capped at approximately 0.40-0.50". Severe weather appears unlikely due to the cold front's lack of instability, and it should be clearing the region by late Thursday evening, which is welcome news for those hoping for the rain to end quickly.
Before the front's arrival, today's temperatures are expected to climb into the low 80s but will be followed by overcast skies and precipitation, dropping Thursday's highs to the mid to upper 60s. As outlined in the Area Forecast Discussion by the National Weather Service, the upper-level trough will be slow to toss its influence aside, aiming to linger until it makes its way to the James Bay region later in the week.
A brief hiatus from rain for most of Friday should not be mistaken for a return to balmy days as the secondary cold front sweeps in later that evening, bringing reinforced cooler air and a potential for lake effect rain showers into Saturday night. With gusting winds reaching upwards of 25 mph on Friday, the weather service has also signaled that the pressure gradient will be strong, and one should expect winds to abate as the front departs early Saturday morning. Highs on Friday are expected to crawl back to the mid-70s but will tumble to the mid-60s after the cold front takes a bow.
As the weekend draws close, lake effect showers should be winding down early Sunday in northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. A stretch of dry weather is forecasted thereafter as high pressure dominates, providing for cooler days with highs just scraping into the upper 60s to low 70s by Tuesday. Evening attire may require an additional layer with overnight lows predicted to descend to the low to mid-40s. Those looking towards the skies can anticipate VFR with cumulus developing ahead of a cold front as noted by the weather service, with southwest winds picking up to 10-15 knots and possibly gusting to 20 knots for western airfields this afternoon.
