The National Weather Service (NWS) in Wilmington has forecasted that several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to hit the Columbus and Cincinnati regions through Thursday, with conditions becoming drier by Friday. According to NWS discussions, this weekend should see a return to sunny skies and a slight uptick in temperatures.
Details from the NWS update mentioned “a fairly-cohesive band of SHRA with embedded TS will work its way E through the heart of the local area through daybreak before exiting by mid morning.” Local residents might see some isolated to scattered showers lingering in the early afternoon, but conditions are expected to worsen again with renewed thunderstorm activity moving in from the southwest by mid-afternoon. This is particularly likely near and south of the I-71 corridor, where the looming weather front is poised to trigger more showers and possible flooding in certain areas.
There's a tangible concern for localized heavy rainfall, with pockets expected to exceed one inch where the storms anchor for a while. The potential for flooding remains on the radar for NWS, noting that if there is “going to be a more concentrated hydro concern, it would likely focus this afternoon into tonight if renewed convection continues to train from SW to NE as the boundary and steering-layer flow become increasingly parallel.” However, the forecaster's confidence in this potential remains low at present.
Despite the complexities in the forecast, temperatures today are predicted to veer lower due to overcast conditions and precipitation, ranging from the lower 70s in central Ohio to the upper 70s across northern Kentucky. As the week progresses, drier air is slated to settle over the area, with predicted declines in the probability of precipitation by Thursday night, and especially into Friday, when any remaining rain should stay southeast of the I-71 corridor.
In aviation terms, flyers can anticipate varying conditions ranging from VFR to IFR, with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms expected to skirt the I-71 corridor, particularly after 03z. In the words of NWS, “Any VFR CIGs this evening will likely go back to MVFR, and eventually IFR, toward daybreak.” Additionally, light and variable winds are forecasted to turn more towards the east-northeast for all local sites by early evening. Those traveling should monitor updates closely as there remains considerable uncertainty around the extend of wetter conditions affecting local air travel.
