Baltimore residents should brace for a dynamic weather system over the coming days, according to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC. Increased moisture and a merging pair of closed lows are driving a strong weather front through the area, likely to culminate in moderate to locally heavy rain tonight into Thursday, with the chance of embedded thunderstorms. In their Area Forecast Discussion, the National Weather Service predicts rises in temperature for those in the warm sector, reaching the 60s on Thursday.
Starting with mostly cloudy skies, residents have seen scattered light showers today. However, the impact is expected to be minimal through the morning hours due to the presence of residual dry air. Daytime highs are being held in the upper 40s to mid-50s by the cloud cover, according to the National Weather Service forecast. The main event rolls in tonight, with strong ascent and moisture flux overspread the area ahead of the low approaching from the southwest, precipitating the heavier rain conditions. While the instability appears to be mostly elevated, limiting the severe weather threat, a Marginal severe weather outlook has been issued by the SPC for Thursday along Chesapeake Bay.
Looking towards Thursday night through to Friday night, the NWS anticipates that precipitation will be primarily focused on the Alleghenies as winds turn westerly. The highest peaks may see a changeover to snow, and a secondary front crossing overnight into Friday morning may spur advisory conditions with wind gusts possibly reaching 46 mph in the higher terrain. The winds are expected to be strong, especially after sunrise on Friday, with gusts ranging from 25 to 40 mph likely throughout the local area.
As the weather moves into the weekend, a more progressive system is anticipated by the NWS. The long-term forecast from Saturday through Tuesday points to seasonable temperatures and, potentially, rainfall associated with an advancing cold front on Monday. In terms of local aviation, VFR conditions are expected to dominate with a northeasterly wind through the morning, transitioning into gustier west winds by sunrise on Friday, lasting through the day. Marine conditions will also reflect escalating winds, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for large swathes of waters well into Saturday.
Coastal areas are on alert for potential flooding. Some locations will continue to have minor tidal flooding through this evening, the NWS warns, as northeasterly winds prop up water levels. The degree of flooding will depend greatly on the track of the low-pressure system and the south wind residence time, leading to a Coastal Flood Watch for susceptible regions. With rapidly declining water levels anticipated by Friday, as winds take a westerly turn, the NWS recommends keeping abreast of the latest weather updates.
