Residents in Baltimore and the surrounding areas should brace for a mix of weather conditions in the coming days, starting with some tranquility and ending with potential coastal flooding concerns. According to the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC, expect high pressure over Quebec to hold steady until about midweek, promising a brief calm before rains start dotting the forecast.
Today, that high-pressure system lingers, spreading high-level clouds across much of the region and thinning to altocumulus in the north, allowing temperatures to drop to the lower and mid-30s in the early hours. The day should bring some respite with a reasonable amount of clearing, especially in northern areas, helping temperatures reach a slightly below-average mid-50s to mid-60s. Despite the northerly cold, a low-pressure system moving across Tennessee toward North Carolina will not make much headway, keeping rain chances tied up near southern Maryland as late as tonight.
Looking toward midweek, the forecast grows increasingly uncertain. Rain showers may spread northward on Tuesday, with cooler, cloudier conditions dominating and gusty northeast winds. Depending on the northward extent of the precipitation and how the thermal profiles evolve, the higher areas of the Alleghenies could see some mixed precipitation, casting a shroud of concern over more than just rain. By Wednesday evening, the merger of several weather systems could result in moderate to heavy rainfall and perhaps even the crackle of an occasional thunderstorm in the I-95 corridor.
Come Thursday, the region may be in for a soaking as at least an inch of rain could be on the menu, with ensemble guidance indicating that this will be a welcome deluge amidst recent drought conditions. Lower, drier conditions are expected to return on Friday with gusting winds as high as 30 mph, but not before some upslope precipitation might grace the Alleghenies with a fleeting suggestion of snow. High pressure is predicted to tease the area on Saturday only to drift away as another disturbance approaches on Sunday, potentially bringing showers with it.
For those with wings, or rather, those taking flight from regional airports, VFR conditions are expected to dominate today and tonight, with northeasterly winds below 10 knots. However, pilots should remain vigilant, as conditions are slated to deteriorate later in the week with an approaching low-pressure system that could bring adverse flying conditions, including IFR ceilings and gusty winds.
Mariners aren't left out of the weather conversation either. High pressure yields sub-advisory winds for the day, but by Tuesday, a small craft advisory comes into effect due to a tightening pressure gradient. The advisory could stretch through Wednesday night with the potential for gale-force winds depending on the development and trajectory of the low from the Tennessee Valley.
As for coastal concerns, the northeasterly winds kicking up midweek are likely to stir trouble in the bay, with water levels rising and the possibility of minor to moderate flooding peaking Wednesday night into Thursday. This might warrant preparations for those in flood-prone regions.
