Midwesterners in the Columbus, Cincinnati, and Wilmington areas are looking at a week of mixed weather as a low-pressure system meanders across the upper Great Lakes, per the latest from the National Weather Service in Wilmington, OH. According to their Area Forecast Discussion, a cold front will sweep through the region today, ushering in scattered showers and the potential light show — a rumble of thunder here and there as a few hundred J/kg of CAPE make themselves known. Heads up for gusty winds, and don't be surprised to find some pea-sized hail dancing off your windshield; those temps aloft are none too warm.
Today’s weather "will quickly pass off to the east this morning and skies will clear," the National Weather Service notes. But hold onto your hats. As we move later into the afternoon, get ready to grapple with breezes that choose to gust suddenly. Shower activity is expected to develop, yes, along the front as it makes its approach across the area. And while showers will be fleeting, their rapid pace could exacerbate wind gusts in their vicinity.
As for what's following tonight and tomorrow, NWS indicates that a near vertically stacked low-pressure system will meander through the Great Lakes. This could spell out a curious divide, as Wednesday sees parts of the area shrouded in cloud, yet near the Ohio River, sunnier spells could prevail. While most locales are pegged to stay dry, those caught in the persistent cyclonic flow may see a shower or two, particularly in the northern counties. The breeze is not letting up either, with mid to upper 20 mph gusts expected during the afternoons, and temperatures lounging below the norm.
The long term is looking somewhat dreary, friends. With the upper low set to lift northeast, a long wave trough lingers only to be nudged eastward in due course. A sigh of relief perhaps, as a narrow ridge subsequently arrives, although any respite is slated to be brief. For those looking skywards for the weekend's forecast: clouds will gather as a warm front stalls out over Kentucky. Whether the front decides to climb over the region eventually remains a question mark. The certainty is that at least some rain is queued to dampen weekend plans. As predicted by NWS, temperature-wise, we are in for a cool stint, with the chance of frost coming Thursday night before things are set to warm up a touch come Monday.
Travelers and aviation enthusiasts, the NWS brings word of generally VFR (Visual Flight Rules) conditions despite these transitions. A pre-frontal trough could see some shifts and shimmies in wind direction, and the odd shower may yet affect Columbus terminals. Gusty winds will be a feature post-18Z, with a cold front expected to cross the area around 23Z-03Z. Isolated thunder might intrude into the airspace, and visibility dips, while brief, cannot be totally ruled out. Once the front has passed, the winds should lessen, at least in their gusto, though sustained winds persisting above 10 kt might be something to note. Pilots will be navigating through a mosaic of cloud coverage in the wake of the front.
