Orlando residents can look forward to a mostly dry end to their work week as a cold front makes its way through the region today, according to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service Melbourne FL. There's a slim chance of a few light showers along the boundary itself, primarily over the Atlantic, but for the most part, clear skies are expected to prevail. Winds will pick up slightly, shifting from northerly to north-northeasterly, and after today's above-normal highs hit the mid to upper 80s, tonight should see temperatures drop into the comfortable 60s.
Looking ahead, a zonal mid/upper-level flow is forecast to establish itself across Florida, with surface high pressure moving eastward and resulting in progressively gusty onshore winds from Thursday into the weekend. The National Weather Service advisory specifies that winds 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 25-30 mph along the coast, are forecast. As high tides roll in, building seas could lead to deteriorating beach and boating conditions as well as potential for beach erosion. The pressure gradient behind the front is anticipated to limit the fog threat overnight. Precipitable water values (PWATs) advected from the Atlantic are expected to remain low, suppressing most shower activity until at least Saturday.
The marine outlook for today and tonight suggests generally favorable boating conditions, with northerly winds increasing to about 10-12 knots by late afternoon. The sea state will remain relatively calm, with heights of 2-3 feet expected. However, boaters should heed the warning of upcoming Small Craft Advisories by late week as seas are projected to build significantly, especially in the Gulf Stream, reaching 7-9 feet under the strong north-northeast winds.
Towards the end of the weekend and into early next week, the forecast becomes more uncertain due to differences in long-term models and the potential influence of Tropical Storm Melissa. While shower chances are low to medium (20-40%) near the coast, conditions are fluid and dependent on the storm's path, as well as the moisture levels it brings. The National Weather Service notes that, currently, Monday looks to have the highest chances for onshore-moving showers, though this outlook could change if moisture increases. The breezy and gusty east to northeast winds are expected to persist, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while most overnight lows should hover in the 60s.
