The National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC has forecasted that blustery conditions will persist today following a strong cold front, with winds gusting from 20 to 30 mph, and even peaking around 40 mph in higher elevations. According to their Area Forecast Discussion, the gusts are a consequence of an embedded mid-level wave, which is also responsible for colder, drier air being pulled into the region.
The coming days are setting up to be a mixed bag of weather for Baltimore and its surrounding areas. While high pressure is expected to build into the region tonight, leading to calmer and clearer conditions, a wave of low pressure will be tracking from near St. Louis, MO, to off the VA coast tomorrow, bracing the area with potential wintry precipitation, particularly in higher elevations. Some slick spots are possible Tuesday morning through early afternoon, the National Weather Service warns, especially in places west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains. These high-pressure conditions will not only calm the winds tonight but should lead to efficient radiational cooling, meaning locals might be revisiting their wardrobes to find that extra layer or two.
As we dive into the midweek forecast, the area will remain under the influence of high pressure, resulting in light northerly to northeasterly flow. Despite this, the low-pressure system skirting by will likely introduce precipitation across the area, with the potential for mixed wintry precipitation on Tuesday morning turning to all rain later on. When describing the mid-week forecast, the National Weather Service stated, the Mid-Atlantic will likely remain wedged in light north to northeast flow on Wednesday, hinting at a potential snagging of cooler temperatures around the region.
Moving into the long-term look, the dance between high pressure and incoming weather systems continues. Though the currents of air will likely stay tame below Small Craft Advisory criteria on Thursday, the outlook for Friday suggests that if the warm front manages to lift and shift the winds southerly, boaters could be facing choppier waters. The weather service cautions in their marine section, for Friday, that if a warm front can lift north and winds become southerly, SCA conditions in southerly channeling are possible. Before this approaching weather, today has been spotlighted for its near-critical fire weather conditions, with relative humidity expected to drop to 15 to 25 percent in most areas and winds gusting robustly.
For those hoping to take to the skies, the weather throws a potential wrench into plans as the low-pressure system may lead to IFR conditions by Tuesday night, persisting into Wednesday. The National Weather Service advises that VFR conditions are generally expected through Tuesday morning for most TAF sites, but clouds and rain may mix things up by Tuesday afternoon and into the midweek. So, whether by land, sea, or air, it seems that the capricious nature of Autumn weather keeps the good people of Baltimore on their toes.
