Baltimore residents should be ready for a weather rollercoaster in the coming days as forecasts predict a mix of rain, above-normal temperatures, and potential South Craft Advisories for mariners. The National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington, D.C. provided a synopsis indicating rain chances will surface tonight, reaching into Saturday morning, followed by brief high pressure and clear skies, with additional inclement weather rolling in mid-next week. According to their recent area forecast discussion, the City of Charm will see approximately a quarter to half inch of rain, particularly north of I-66, with temperatures holding steady in the low 50s.
In the near term, while most of today should remain free of precipitation under overcast skies, Baltimoreans can expect light showers to spread across the area by the evening, especially along and south of I-64, which may experience rain before day's end, then low pressure from Kansas is slated to move through, creating the conditions for rain overnight ending Saturday morning starting. The quick departure of low pressure on Saturday ushers in weak high pressure, leading to clear skies and warmer temperatures. Flight operations will likely see some disruptions, transitioning from MVFR conditions to IFR/LIFR visibility as the rain persists tonight, improving swiftly to VFR as Saturday progresses.
Looking further ahead into early next week, a split jet stream pattern will influence the local weather, giving rise to a longwave ridge that brings another period of clear skies and above-normal temperatures on Monday. However, a highly amplified split jet structure continues into next week, and a trough making headway across the Great Plains could mean scattered showers Tuesday, accompanied by milder weather, as temperatures on Wednesday climb well into the 60s, except in the mountain areas. A strong cold front around Thursday may put a damper on Thanksgiving Day festivities, though models vary on its precise timing and influence.
Pilots are advised that Monday should remain generally smooth sailing with the NWS forecasting VFR conditions across the area, but they should brace for potential turbulence as Tuesday may be muddled with warm advection rains introducing possible restrictions, with northerly winds shifting to southerlies and gusts reaching up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Boating conditions kick up a notch this weekend post-frontal, and while relaxed conditions are expected Monday, mariners should stay vigilant as heightened southeasterly winds are anticipated to reach Small Craft Advisory levels by Tuesday.
