The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a forecast that anticipates a wintry mix of precipitation for the coming weekend. According to their latest National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion, brisk and cold conditions are expected to persist today with a continued dip in temperatures tonight. Areas like Columbus, Cincinnati, Wilmington, and beyond are bracing for a potential mix of accumulating snow come Saturday into early Sunday as a weather system sweeps through the Ohio Valley. The NWS also indicates that below-normal temperatures are likely to linger into next week, with another round of winter weather slated for Tuesday.
While scurrying through daybreak before finally tapering off by early afternoon are flurries, cloud coverage is anticipated to remain extensive throughout the morning. Lake-effect snow showers are expected to emerge in regions stretching from northwest Ohio through west-central and central Ohio around sunrise. The National Weather Service predicts "a chance for snow showers in these areas through this morning, with the potential for a trace or minor accumulations." Daytime highs are set to hover in the lower to mid-30s, although some upper 30s are possible in certain areas receiving sunshine by the afternoon.
Regarding the short-term outlook, surface high pressure is set to drift across the region tonight before shifting eastward. Tonight's clear skies may give way to cloud cover from the west, just as conditions favor radiational cooling, leading to temperatures dropping to the upper teens and lower 20s before steadying with increased cloudiness near dawn. The focal point then shifts to an incoming system due by Saturday morning from Illinois and Indiana. "Guidance has been trending a bit faster with the onset of precipitation," notes the NWS, with snow expected to hit east-central Indiana and west-central Ohio by mid-morning due to warm air advection.
The NWS has placed a Winter Storm Watch for select Ohio and Indiana regions from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Probability assessments indicate a higher likelihood of significant snowfall northwest of Interstate 71. For areas southeast of I-71, there is less certainty around precipitation types and onsets, but snow accumulation is still possible. Noteworthy is the statement which reports there's "still some uncertainty whether warning-level criteria will be met in these areas," as per NWS, with only about a 25% probability for the highest snow accumulations predicted by the latest output.
Looking ahead into the early week, another wave of wintry conditions is projected for Monday night through Tuesday. An upper-level trough and an associated surface low could bring snowfall to the region yet again. The NWS acknowledges, however, that forecast uncertainty remains high due to variability in the strength and positioning of the developing surface low. After this event, high pressure is expected to usher in a period of dry and cold weather from Tuesday night through Thursday.
