Residents of Pittsburgh can expect a calm weather day ahead of an incoming storm system that's likely to shake things up over the weekend. The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh parsed through the meteorological data and, in a report early Friday morning, highlighted the quiet conditions brought on by high pressure today and into the evening, with seasonable temperatures anticipated. According to the forecast, sky-gazers should take note of some midday clouds, but these ephemeral visitors won't stop the mercury from hitting the lower 50s, which is smack-dab average for mid-November in the region.
Your evening lows tonight might be deceptive, with temperatures slated to rise post-midnight as a low-pressure system skirts across the Great Lakes. Bumping the dew point into the 50s, this spread over northwest Ontario, as noted by the National Weather Service, will eventually deepen below 990 mb by Saturday afternoon as it races toward southwestern Quebec, pulling a cold front behind it into Ohio. The front, moving at an expeditious clip, brings with it plenty of shear for severe thunderstorms, and though categorized as 'marginal risk' for most of the area, gusty winds wouldn't be a surprise guest.
While Saturday might be a mixed bag of showers and wind, Sunday's forecast predicts the mercury will take a plunge, and residents can expect blustery weather for the tail end of the weekend. The National Weather Service forewarns of winds gusting up to 30 mph in most places, with the higher ridges over eastern Tucker County in West Virginia potentially facing stronger gusts. Lake Effect Snow showers are on the betting table for early Monday, particularly along the I-80 corridor, where forecast models suggest snow accumulations could range between 1.5 and 2.5 inches for the adventurous souls in Venango and Forest counties.
Come Tuesday, all eyes will be trained on a system forming off California. This system, picked up by ensemble guidance, is seen trekking into the central Plains and weakening as it faces the uphill battle against confluent flow aloft around Tuesday in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley area. The vanguard of this weak shield of precipitation is expected to hug the south, yet whispers of wintry mixtures in the forecast can't be ignored for the overlaying regions, awaiting the system. For a brief moment in the week, Wednesday offers a respite under high pressure before the cycle may churn anew with another trough potentially stirring up from the four corners area by Thursday, as per the National Weather Service Pittsburgh's analysis.
For those looking up, aviation conditions remain favorable for the majority of the period with VFR conditions. However, things are set to thicken and lower tonight, so pilots should be prepped for the onset of non-restrictive light rain showers post-midnight. As forecasted, probabilities of MVFR ceilings begin to spike above 80 percent after 09Z or so, creeping in south of I-70 before becoming a general affair for the rest of the terminals throughout Saturday morning. It's a call to buckle up for the weekend's climactic ride.
