Honolulu residents can expect a mix of weather patterns in the coming days, with trade winds bringing showers to certain areas, followed by drier conditions. According to the National Weather Service in Honolulu, moderate trades will favor windward and mauka zones, with the likelihood of increased shower activity expected later in the week as a front approaches. Winds are set to become lighter and shift southerly, leaning toward a wetter shift for the latter half of the week.
There has been a noted decrease in volcanic ash emission from Kilauea's Halemaumau Crater as of early this morning. The ash plume is hovering at around 10,000 feet mean sea level, with potential light ashfall within a 5-mile radius of the volcano, as further detailed by the NWS report. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough near the islands is predicted to stir some instability, which may lead to brief intervals of heavy showers mainly over windward and higher elevation (mauka) areas. A band of moisture spotted on satellite imagery is also set to deliver rain to the Big Island and Maui, particularly on their windward sides, early today. This weather could later reach parts of Molokai and Oahu by mid-morning or early afternoon.
Aviation-wise, fluctuations between VFR and brief MVFR conditions are to be anticipated due to the showers, while AIRMET Tango has been issued, warning of moderate turbulence for flights at altitudes between FL290-FL360 from Kauai to Maui. The local marine forecast highlights a high-pressure ridge to the north, presiding over easterly winds that will gradually shift southeasterly to southerly mid-week. A decline in north-northwest swells is on tap, with surf expected to fall below average levels for the season. An incoming northwest swell, however, may bring a rebound to those conditions by Wednesday.
Fire weather conditions remain non-critical this week. Light to moderate trade winds and relative humidity in the low to mid-50% range will keep fire danger low, according to the NWS. Winds are expected to weaken later in the week, but increasing moisture should further reduce fire risk.
As for potential hazards, the seasonal high-water levels could lead to minor coastal flooding, particularly during high tides in the morning. For now, no watches, warnings, or advisories have been issued, ensuring a cautiously optimistic outlook for Hawaii's residents as they navigate the week's assorted weather developments.
