As the week advances, Columbus, Cincinnati, and the broader Ohio region are expecting a warming trend, courtesy of a southerly flow, as reported by the National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio. NWS indicates that temperatures will climb back above normal on Thursday, though rain is on the horizon, tied to an incoming cold front. After the rain, a high-pressure system is forecast to usher in dry and cooler weather on Friday.
Today, Ohio sits under partly sunny skies, with a weak front quietly dissolving into the atmosphere, having little impact on weather conditions. Gusty winds will, fortunately, ease off as the pressure gradient over the area weakens, facilitating highs ranging from the upper 30s north to mid-40s south. As the weakening mid-level shortwave pushes across the Great Lakes, the weak front will drop into Ohio and lose its identity, this will have little or no impact on our sensible weather.
The National Weather Service has also pointed out that a pressure gradient increase is expected tonight as a trough edges closer, dragging a 50-55kt southerly low-level jet with it. This event promotes not just the warmth but also moisture advection. Given this, clouds will thicken from the west while precipitation holds off until later Thursday.
Thursday's weather story will pivot as a robust mid-level trough progresses into the Mississippi Valley, paving the way for rain that'll blanket the region by mid-afternoon. A stiffening of the pressure gradient will kick up breezy conditions, particularly in the afternoon, once warmth is bolstered by the advection process, with ensemble projections flagging west central Ohio as having the highest probabilities of seeing 35 MPH gusts or higher. Rain will develop in the west by noon and overspread the region, reaching the east by mid-afternoon.
Moving into Thursday night, a swift cold front passage is expected, which will result in an abrupt switch to westerly winds and a drop in temperatures. A blast of wind could reach up to 35-40 mph just behind the front. Although the rain will end swiftly, residual moisture on the pathways could lead to slick conditions come Friday morning's commute. By Friday afternoon, high pressure begins its brief dominance before giving way to another, albeit less moisture-rich, front over the weekend, signaling a return of chillier air come Sunday and Monday.
On the aviation front, VFR conditions are anticipated to persist into tonight, with a mixture of mid and high-level clouds tracking across the skies today. Pilots can expect VFR ceilings to dip on Thursday, with rain chances entering the picture post-16Z. An incoming southwesterly jet will introduce a period of low-level wind shear ending just after sunrise today, with a subsequent low-level jet following suit later tonight into Thursday, as reported by the National Weather Service. Gusty southwest winds will diminish today, backing to the southeast by tonight.
