Honolulu is expected to have mostly stable weather through Friday, with steady trade winds maintained by high pressure north of the islands. Upper-air balloon soundings from Lihue and Hilo at 2 AM HST show a stable layer between 5,000 and 6,000 feet, limiting precipitation and keeping conditions generally dry, with occasional windward and mauka showers, according to the National Weather Service.
Over the weekend, trade winds are forecasted to weaken and shift southeast, while ridging aloft begins to lose strength, allowing some atmospheric instability. A low near the International Dateline may push a cold front toward the islands, and "This may result in increased instability and heavy rainfall potential," particularly on Kauai, though model predictions remain uncertain, as reported by the National Weather Service.
Trade winds will decrease over the next few days, resulting in mostly VFR conditions for aviators, with no AIRMETs in effect. Hawaiian waters will have moderate to fresh trade winds through tonight, slowing gradually afterward. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 6 AM HST on Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, and waters off the Big Island. A moderate north-northeast swell will continue tonight and subside by Friday, while a small west-northwest swell may affect west-facing shores over the weekend, as stated by the National Weather Service.
