Residents of Cleveland and its surrounding areas in Ohio and Pennsylvania should brace themselves for a snowy weekend, with significant weather warnings issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) in Cleveland. According to the Area Forecast Discussion, a weak ridge today will give way to a sweeping cold front on Saturday, followed by a trough that is expected to linger through the weekend. As the ridge exits and cyclonic flow sets in tonight, isolated snow showers could begin popping up over northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania after about 2 AM on Saturday, in addition to increasing lake-effect snow (LES) expected to impact areas downwind from Lake Erie.
For snow enthusiasts, the time is now to dust off the boots and shovels — the Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the primary snowbelt regions from Saturday morning through late Sunday night, with forecasters anticipating the combination of widespread snow and localized LES could result in hefty accumulations. As the surface cold front makes its presence felt between daybreak and late Saturday afternoon, and the passage of a shortwave trough follows, lightweight snow showers are forecasted meanwhile low-level convergence could significantly enhance the lake-effect snow, the 850 mb temperatures near -10C ahead of the cold front are expected to plummet to near -15C which causes some concern among meteorologists due to its potential for creating a crosshair signature indicating possible heavy snowfall.
Heading into Saturday night, the focus shifts from widespread snow to persistent LES concentrated primarily in the snowbelt areas of northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania, driven by a blend of westerly and northwesterly flow, weak to moderate LICAPE, and plummeting 850 mb temperatures to near -20C. "During Sunday night, the LES should shift northward to the primary snowbelt and vicinity in our CWA," states the forecast from the NWS, with expectations for LES to gradually weaken by Monday due to atmospheric conditions, including a lower subsidence inversion.
Consequently, residents should prepare for a cold snap, by Sunday and Monday mornings, wind chills are forecasted to dip to between 0°F to -10°F — an uninviting chill that favors those preferring to hibernate rather than shovel. Come Monday, despite the LES potentially easing, forecasts anticipate snow showers may persist, scattered outside the LES, the LES should weaken Monday night and end by daybreak Tuesday, additional snow of a coating to several inches are possible during this period, this forecast suggests an active period of winter weather that will pose several challenges for transportation and outdoor activities throughout the impacted areas.
Looking ahead, it seems like weather patterns will keep people guessing, with a brief reprieve expected on Tuesday before another shift on Wednesday. A return flow of warm and moist Gulf air could deliver rain throughout the area from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with nighttime temperatures possibly dropping enough to allow wet snow to mix in.
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