Baltimore residents can anticipate a shift in weather patterns, as National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC forecasts high pressure moving offshore this afternoon, followed by an area of low pressure tracking northward on Wednesday, leading to a cold front passage on Wednesday night and persistent upper troughing along the East Coast into early next week. Despite the high-pressure transit and incoming cloudiness, today’s conditions should be mostly sunny for the majority of daylight hours with afternoon temperatures predicted to hit the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Looking to Wednesday, the weather headlines will spotlight an area of low pressure barreling northeastward toward the southeastern Alaska coast spurring a high amplitude ridge downstream; but although we should brace for a sweeper of skies, the day’s story will likely be mild highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s with a chance of steady rain, in parts, bounded by I-95, I-66, and I-81. As Wednesday matures, moving into Thursday, a changing of the guards brings a colder air mass post-frontal passage, which will test those in the Alleghenies with an evening flash freeze possibility and 1-3 inches of snow precursor to hard-falling temperatures across the region.
The latter part of the week ushers in the quintessential January chill, as thermometers at lower elevations will likely peak around the freezing point on Thursday, accented by wind gusts upward of 30 mph – a stark reminder from the National Weather Service for extra layers before stepping outdoors. Overnight lows Thursday into Friday are forecast to plummet further, with most seeing teens and single digits becoming the reluctant norm in mountainous terrain.
The weather narrative from Friday through Monday is dominated by persistent troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, influenced by a solidifying western ridging, predicting a continuation of below-normal temperatures with slight moderation early next week; the crux though, if we're talking snow east of the Appalachians, amounts to an affair of timing and phasing between the northern and southern jet streams. Ongoing monitoring is paramount as this potential snow scenario is currently deemed a lower probability by National Weather Service ensemble models.
Aviation and maritime interests will be kept on their toes throughout these transitions, with mostly VFR conditions expected to take us through Saturday, save for a brush with rain activity; vessels and aircraft will want to heed predictions of Small Craft Advisory gusts from this afternoon through Thursday night with occasional Gale-force unwelcome guests, and reminder – lighter but still noteworthy southerly and westerly winds to end the week.
