Maui County remains under a persistent weather front that's bringing a continuation of shower activity across the region and windward portions of the Big Island today. The National Weather Service in Honolulu has indicated that unsettled weather is expected to resume over the weekend, with another slower-moving front on the move towards the islands. Improvement in conditions is, however, anticipated by early next week as drier air makes its way in behind the front, with a high-pressure system to set up north of the islands.
The existing weather front, which has stalled out, is bisecting the Hawaiian Islands along Maui County, where it's expected to remain much of today. "Periods of shower activity to predominately Maui County and windward portions of the Big Island" are on the forecast, according to the NWS advisory. There's an added note of caution, as model guidance hints at the potential for localized flooding and water ponding on roadways with the development of higher rain rates -- a situation that forecasters have advised should be monitored closely as the week progresses.
With the weekend in view, weather models seem to concur on an active pattern that includes more showers. Shifting winds from northeastern to southeasterly are foreseen in response to another frontal boundary that's slowly creeping in from the northwest. This system potentially carries with it significantly more moisture than typical, with precipitable water amounts soaring 2 to 3 standard deviations above the norm. This could mean a continuation of the wet pattern through the weekend, challenging residents and visitors alike.
Looking ahead to next week, there's a hopeful turn in the weather narrative, with the undesirable front expected to make its exit to the east, making room for clearer skies. A surface high building north of the islands, along with "extensive ridging aloft," could be the herald of drier conditions that many are no doubt eagerly anticipating, as detailed by the NWS.
In aviation terms, mostly VFR conditions are expected statewide, though some showers could bring temporary MVFR cigs/vsbys in parts of Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Meanwhile, the waters around Hawaii are advised to expect light to moderate northeast winds through Friday, with some heavy showers and stronger southwest winds slated to coincide with the weekend's frontal boundary. As for swells, surfers can expect advisory-level conditions along northern and western shores until Friday, with a new northwest swell due by the weekend's end.
As of current reports, there are no active watches, warnings, or advisories from the Honolulu Forecast Office, but as the weather can change rapidly, it's advisable to stay informed through the latest updates.
