The National Weather Service in Honolulu is forecasting a shift in weather for the Hawaiian Islands as southeast low level winds are expected to bring in increasing temperatures along with higher humidity and the possibility of light showers, particularly affecting windward and mauka areas through Tuesday. "A front will move into the western end of the state Tuesday night," noting the potential for this moisture to linger and maybe persist the entire way into the weekend, and even though the flooding risk may be small it's not entirely dismissible as models seek clarity, as detailed by NWS.
With the winds veering to the southeast, the anticipated conditions are not just stickier and hotter but also wetter the radar picked up light showers across several islands overnight and satellite imagery substantiates a band of mostly cloudy skies advancing from the southeast complemented by high-level clouds from the northwest, the front is expected to approach Kauai County Tuesday night, likely passing through somewhere around midnight, and it could stall near Oahu come Wednesday afternoon it might even push back toward Kauai or near the Big Island by the end of the week, amidst this uncertainty the chance of rainfall increases across all islands.
On the aviation front, the current outlook suggests moderate east-southeasterly winds dominating for the next day, subject to land and sea breezes due to terrain sheltering effects, while mostly dry conditions with isolated light showers are likely for slopes and coasts with VFR conditions expected at all Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) locations. "No AIRMETs are in effect and none are anticipated today," ensuring smooth skies for most air travelers, as noted by the National Weather Service.
In terms of marine implications, the Small Craft Advisory has been scaled back to include only the typically windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island effective until 6 AM HST Tuesday, as the sea conditions start to improve with the decrease in wind, but while surfing conditions on north and west facing shores have returned to safer levels, mariners are being reminded a new moderate, long period, northwest swell is slated to arrive Tuesday that could sustain elevated surf near advisory levels into the middle of the week, and although isolated thunderstorms are possible with the incoming front over the northwest offshore waters, the front is tipped to weaken as it ingrains itself into central coastal waters midweek.
The weather update indicates a momentary reprieve in terms of advisories with the cancellation of the High Surf Advisory for north and west facing shores following the decline of both the swell and resultant surf levels below advisory thresholds. Yet, the community should stay informed about the Small Craft Advisory still in place for several areas surrounding Maui and the Big Island, as detailed by the NWS Honolulu Weather Forecast on their website.
