A new national analysis in JAMA Oncology is putting hard numbers behind a fear many doctors already had: people first diagnosed with cancer in 2020 and 2021 did not fare as well as patients diagnosed in the years before the pandemic.
According to the study, published today, one-year survival dropped for patients whose first cancer diagnosis came during those first two pandemic years, compared with diagnoses from 2015 through 2019. The decline showed up in both early- and late-stage disease and was most pronounced for colorectal, prostate and pancreatic cancers. The findings add another unsettling entry to the pandemic’s long tail and sharpen questions about delayed screenings and disrupted care.
Study details
The researchers drew on national cancer-registry records and zeroed in on people with a first malignant diagnosis in 2020 or 2021. As reported by Click2Houston, the analysis covered more than 1 million patients and recorded roughly 144,000 deaths within a year of diagnosis.
To better isolate the pandemic’s impact on cancer care itself, the authors say they tried to filter out deaths mainly attributed to COVID-19. The goal was to see whether other pandemic-related disruptions played a role in outcomes. The paper, published in JAMA Oncology, is being described as the first large-scale, cause-specific look at short-term cancer survival during the pandemic.
Why researchers point to care disruptions
Lead author Todd Burus told reporters the study could not conclusively pin the changes on a single culprit. Still, “disruptions to the health care system were probably a key contributor,” he said, according to the Associated Press.
Experts noted that some of the loss in one-year survival may reflect delayed screening, slower treatment starts and strained follow-up care during the first waves of COVID-19, when hospitals were stretched and many patients stayed away. At the same time, the American Cancer Society has cautioned that if these short-term dips are brief and recovery is relatively quick, long-term mortality trends may not shift as dramatically.
Builds on earlier evidence of missed diagnoses
The new findings fit into a growing body of research on what did not happen in 2020: routine cancer detection. A 2024 analysis in JAMA Network Open, led by some of the same researchers, estimated roughly 149,000 potentially undiagnosed cancer cases in 2020.
A separate 2024 study in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute documented a dip in one-year survival for patients diagnosed in the second quarter of 2020. Taken together, the work suggests that interruptions in screening and diagnosis during the early pandemic had measurable short-term consequences.
What Houston doctors are saying
In Houston, clinicians have been seeing the real-world version of those statistics walk into their exam rooms. Memorial Hermann told the Houston Chronicle that some patients are now showing up sicker than they likely would have before the pandemic, and that ramping up screening outreach remains a priority.
MD Anderson and other local centers have emphasized safety protocols and outreach programs aimed at getting screening rates back up, especially in communities that saw the steepest dropoffs. The message is not subtle: if you pressed pause on preventive care a few years ago, it is time to hit play again.
What patients should do
National cancer groups continue to hammer home a familiar point: timely screening and prompt evaluation of symptoms save lives. The American Cancer Society’s 2026 report shows that five-year survival has improved overall, underscoring why catching cancers early still matters.
If you are due for a mammogram, colonoscopy, lung screening or other routine test, or if you have new or changing symptoms, contact your provider and ask about safety measures and scheduling options. Clinics have had years to refine their protocols; what has not changed is the payoff of finding cancer earlier.
The JAMA Oncology analysis cannot yet answer whether the one-year survival dip will lead to higher long-term mortality. For Houston readers, though, it drives home a straightforward point: missed screenings and delayed care have consequences. Getting back on schedule now is one of the few ways to blunt the pandemic’s downstream toll.
