A new tri-county study is sounding the alarm on Tampa Bay's housing supply: the region will need roughly 254,700 new homes by 2035, about 21,225 a year, just to keep up with projected population and household growth. Without a major jump in construction and more targeted investment, researchers warn that a combo of soaring rents and lagging building will leave hundreds of thousands of families strapped by housing costs.
The report, titled "The Housing Equation," was released Jan. 16 by the Tampa Bay Partnership and pulls together research from SB Friedman, Intersection Ventures and the University of Florida's Shimberg Center. The work was supported by JPMorgan Chase, according to Tampa Bay Partnership, and is designed to hand local leaders county-level, income-specific and housing-type data they can use to craft a regional game plan.
Local coverage has zeroed in on the squeeze many residents already feel: median rent jumped nearly 50% in five years while wages climbed only about 29%, and homes priced under $200,000 dropped from 30% of sales in 2019 to just 5% in 2022. That leaves working families with fewer realistic options, as reported by Bay News 9. The outlet also noted that between 2018 and 2023 the region added nearly 100,000 households but built only about 82,000 units.
Numbers That Add Up, And Do Not
The study estimates a current shortfall of roughly 80,650 units that would be affordable to households earning 80% of the area median income, and finds that more than 408,000 households, about one-third of the region, are cost-burdened, meaning they spend over 30% of their income on housing. Looking ahead, the researchers project 564,000 new residents and 211,000 additional households by 2035 and calculate that the tri-county region will need about 254,700 new housing units to keep up. That breaks down to an average annual need of 10,685 single-family units and 10,540 multifamily units, per Osprey Observer.
What Leaders Are Saying
Tampa Bay Partnership CEO Bemetra Simmons has called housing affordability "one of the most urgent challenges we face together" and said the report "breaks down what is needed by county, income level and housing type" so leaders can pursue zoning changes, creative financing tools and other proven strategies, according to Osprey Observer. The researchers also estimate that roughly $273 million in targeted gap funding could unlock an additional $663 million and generate about $1 billion in economic impact for Tampa Bay.
What Comes Next
The Partnership says it hopes the data will serve as the backbone of a Regional Action Plan and help bring public, private and nonprofit partners to the same table to scale up solutions. It hosted a stakeholder webinar on Feb. 5 to walk through county-level findings and potential next steps, according to Tampa Bay Partnership. Officials say that from here, key moves will include lining up financing, zoning and city and county approvals so builders can move faster in the areas where demand is highest.
Residents and stakeholders can download the full 137-page study, along with an executive summary, via the report hub or read the full report on Issuu at Issuu. For media inquiries, the report lists Jessica Vega-Eugene at [email protected] and 813-263-0792, and the Partnership is also asking the community to weigh in on potential solutions and funding approaches.
