Donald Trump is getting a cold shoulder from a key swing state. A new Marquette Law School survey finds the former president underwater with Wisconsin voters, a fresh reminder that the state that flipped the Electoral College twice is still in no mood to make anything easy for either party.
What the poll found
According to the Marquette Law School Poll, 43% of registered Wisconsin voters said they had a favorable view of Trump, while 54% said they had an unfavorable view. That puts his net favorability at -11. In the same release, his job approval numbers came in at roughly 44% approve to 54% disapprove, for a net job-approval figure near -10.
The Marquette release reports that the survey was conducted with several hundred registered voters in mid-February and lists the statewide margin of error at about ±4.3 percentage points. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel characterized the topline result as a record low for Trump in Wisconsin, a label that quickly echoed through state political coverage.
Who shifted and where
The poll highlights sharp partisan splits. Republicans overwhelmingly registered approval of Trump, Democrats overwhelmingly registered disapproval, and independents tilted negative. In a purple state like Wisconsin, that last group is the one that keeps campaign operatives up at night.
Associated Press copy carried by NBC26 summarized those breaks in the sample, noting the wide gap between partisan blocs. Poll director Charles Franklin urged caution about reading too much into a single snapshot and stressed that trends over time matter more than any one survey, a point reflected in local coverage from TMJ4 and others.
Why it matters for Wisconsin politics
Marquette’s toplines do not just show trouble for Trump. The same release lists the MAGA movement’s net favorability at about -14 and the Republican Party near -12, suggesting discontent that extends beyond a single political figure.
In a state where independents and suburban voters routinely decide close contests, those broader negatives give Democrats potential openings, while Republicans face pressure to sharpen turnout efforts and messaging ahead of primaries and the fall campaign. Operatives on both sides say they will be watching closely to see whether these findings hold in follow-up polling.
For now, the Marquette numbers are a reminder that Wisconsin remains a churn-prone battleground. Small shifts among independents and soft supporters can decide statewide races, and this week’s coverage has put both parties on notice.
