The NBA is gearing up for a major draft lottery shakeup that would make losing a whole lot less attractive. Owners and executives are weighing a "3-2-1" overhaul that would expand the lottery, flatten odds and tack on fresh penalties for the league's worst finishers, all in an effort to strip tanking of its payoff.
The league has already shared the "3-2-1" framework with all 30 general managers, according to ESPN. The proposal would expand the lottery from 14 to 16 teams and simplify the odds so each team gets either one, two or three ping-pong balls. Reporters say this model has emerged as the clear frontrunner after weeks of discussion between the competition committee, general managers and the league office.
As detailed by the San Antonio Express-News, those 16 lottery teams would be assigned between one and three balls. Losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games would get one ball, the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds would get two, and most non-playoff teams would receive three. Under the plan, the three worst regular-season teams would be dropped into a kind of "draft relegation" zone and lose one ball apiece, leaving each with a 5.4% chance at the No. 1 pick and a floor at No. 12. The other seven non-playoff teams would sit at an 8.1% shot at the top pick, and the 7-8 play-in losers would have a 2.7% chance. League estimates also peg the bottom three clubs at roughly a 72% chance of falling outside the top five, a dramatic swing from the current system.
How the 3-2-1 Plan Would Hit Trades And Tankers
The proposal would not stop at odds and ping-pong balls. It would also tighten rules around trading future picks and layer on new anti-tanking penalties, including a ban on protections for traded selections that end up between Nos. 12 and 15, plus restrictions that would prevent any team from landing back-to-back No. 1 picks or three consecutive top-five selections, as reported by Sports Illustrated. On top of that, the league would gain broader disciplinary power to cut a team's lottery odds or adjust its draft position if it decides a franchise is intentionally losing.
Why The League Says It Needs A Fix
Commissioner Adam Silver has argued that the current setup rewards the wrong behavior, saying earlier that "the incentives are not necessarily matched here," and league officials point to a season packed with unusually frequent late-season blowouts as proof that the existing system can be gamed, per reporting. This extended run of lopsided losses also coincided with the NBA fining the Utah Jazz $500,000 for conduct labeled "detrimental to the league," an example officials now lean on when arguing for tougher anti-tanking tools.
Next Steps And When It Could Hit The Draft
The 3-2-1 plan will go back to the competition committee for further discussion before heading to team owners for a final vote, and a wire report says owners could cast their ballots as soon as May 28. If approved, the overhaul would kick in for the 2027 draft and come with a sunset clause that forces the Board of Governors to vote on whether to keep or tweak the system after the 2029 draft, according to RealGM.
Whether flattening the odds really kills off tanking is another story. Front offices can still rebuild through trades, free agency and player development. But by the league's own standards, the 3-2-1 proposal is the most aggressive incentive reset it has floated in years. Owners now face a blunt choice: preserve the old lottery edge for bottom-feeders or sign off on a system that tries to make losing less rewarding and the regular season a little more honest.
