Baltimore rolled into Sunday with a cool, mostly clear start near 56°F, but that will not last long. A sharp warm-up is on tap for May 10, with the high expected to climb to around 81°F. Scattered showers and a round of afternoon thunderstorms are possible across the region between about 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. EDT, which could turn the late afternoon commute into a soggy shuffle.
Afternoon Thunderstorm Window
A cold front sliding through Sunday afternoon, May 10, will drive a roughly 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the most widespread activity expected around 4 to 5 p.m. EDT. Most spots are forecast to see less than a tenth of an inch of rain, but any stronger storm cell could briefly open the taps with heavy downpours and gusty winds strong enough to toss around unsecured outdoor items.
The National Weather Service notes that instability is only modest today, so a broad severe outbreak is not anticipated. Even so, lightning and sudden wind gusts remain the main concerns, especially for anyone caught outside or on the roads as storms pass.
Tonight Into Monday
Showers should taper off late Sunday night, but they may redevelop Monday morning, May 11, as low pressure tracks along the front. Monday turns cooler, with a high near 67°F and mostly cloudy skies hanging around. Overnight lows are expected near 53°F Sunday night (May 10) and around 48°F Monday night (May 11), with north winds at times gusting up to about 18 mph.
A late season frost and localized freeze is still on track well west of the Blue Ridge Monday night into Tuesday, May 12. That chilly threat, however, stops short of Baltimore, so city gardeners can breathe a little easier.
Marine And Boaters
For those on the water, small craft operators will want to pay attention. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 12:00 a.m. Monday, May 11, through about 12:00 p.m. Monday, May 11, for portions of the Chesapeake and adjacent tidal waters. Northerly channeling will kick up choppy conditions overnight into Monday morning, so it is a good time to secure light gear and double-check any ferry or water taxi plans.
Conditions improve Tuesday as high pressure builds in and winds ease, but forecast guidance still points to another round of showers and thunderstorms possible by midweek.
Planning Notes
If you have outdoor plans today, consider shifting them earlier or keeping a dry backup spot where you can ride out a quick storm. Expect brief slowdowns on the commute from ponding on roads and occasional gusts. Drivers should ease off the gas on wet pavement, and cyclists would be wise to allow some extra braking room.
For a deeper dive on how this pattern is set up, see our earlier storm setup, which outlined the frontal pattern now delivering today’s warmth, followed by late-day rain chances.
