Blackburn Dominates GOP While Green Leads Tennessee Democrats

A new Beacon poll released May 7 has U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn lapping the Republican pack, pulling roughly 63% support among likely GOP primary voters in Tennessee. On the Democratic side, Memphis City Councilmember Jerri Green sits in first place with about 14% support, but “Not sure” still beats every named candidate. In a hypothetical general‑election matchup, the survey shows Blackburn up on Green by roughly 24 points, highlighting just how steep the hill is for Democrats statewide.

What the poll measured

The Beacon Center of Tennessee released the survey on May 7 after polling 1,200 Tennesseans on everything from energy and roads to political approval ratings. In its writeup, Beacon reports Blackburn at 63% in the Republican primary and Jerri Green at 14% on the Democratic side, with a big chunk of Democratic voters still undecided, according to Beacon Center of Tennessee.

Numbers and methodology

Local coverage pointed out that the head‑to‑head general‑election numbers came from about 1,157 primary‑voter responses, a detail that helps explain why the margins look so wide. The reported matchup had Blackburn at roughly 51% to Green’s 27%, along with a breakdown of the Republican and Democratic subsamples behind those figures, according to WREG.

Why the timing matters

The calendar is already tightening. Tennessee’s gubernatorial primary lands on Aug. 6, 2026, with the general election set for Nov. 3, 2026. That means summer fundraising, organizing and the first wave of TV ads could lock in or shake up these early numbers, according to Wikipedia.

Democrats' uphill climb

Democrats start in a hole. Green’s Memphis profile gives her a base in one of the party’s strongest pockets, but turning that into statewide name recognition and real money is another story. Tennessee Firefly notes that Green currently leads a small Democratic field even as most Democratic voters remain undecided, leaving the primary fluid and the general election matchup mostly theoretical.

Polls are a snapshot, not a prophecy, but Beacon’s May numbers suggest the GOP contest in Tennessee looks settled for now while Democrats will have to unite quickly if they want a real fight in the fall, according to Beacon Center of Tennessee. Campaigns, donors and political junkies alike will be watching the next fundraising reports, early ad buys and any national mood swings as the August primary creeps closer.