Central Texas is staring down yet another overnight soaking, with storms expected late tonight into Thursday morning. Forecasts call for heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds, and some of the stronger cells could toss out hail or damaging straight-line winds. With multiple rounds of rain in the mix, the risk of localized flash flooding climbs just as much of the Austin metro heads into the pre-dawn commute.
When the storms will hit
The main window for storms across the region runs from late Wednesday night through the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, according to NWS Austin/San Antonio. Forecasters expect the Hill Country to see the bulk of the activity between about 2 a.m. and 7 a.m., with areas east of I-35 lining up more squarely with the pre-dawn commute. The office's timing graphic shows storms firing earlier in the Rio Grande Plains and marching east overnight, putting a big slice of the Austin area under the gun while many drivers are on the road.
Flooding risk: how much rain could fall
The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a marginal-to-slight risk of excessive rainfall across central Texas, pegging roughly a 5% to 15% chance that rain rates will top flash-flood guidance overnight into early Thursday, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Ensemble guidance and local forecasts point to widespread 1 to 2 inch totals, with higher pockets where storms train over the same spots, as reported by the Austin American-Statesman. Those setups ramp up flash-flood concerns for low-lying roads, creeks and neighborhoods with spotty drainage.
Severe threat: hail and damaging winds
The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight risk for portions of central Texas tonight, and forecasters say isolated to scattered severe storms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts, remain on the table, per the Storm Prediction Center. Residents in the western and southern Edwards Plateau and the adjacent Hill Country should keep a close eye out for brief but intense storms that could flare up quickly.
Where storms have already drenched
Earlier rounds of storms have already wrung out impressive totals. The Austin American-Statesman reports pockets of 5 to 7 inches of rain in parts of Williamson County, and some Tuesday-night storms kicked out wind gusts topping 60 mph. Those heavier totals have creeks and low-lying streets running high in spots, which only adds to the risk of localized road flooding when the next wave moves in.
How to stay safe during the commute
If you have to be on the road, avoid flooded streets and stick with the "Turn Around, Don't Drown" guidance, since the National Weather Service and local officials warn that not every flooded crossing will be barricaded, and any water over the roadway should be treated as dangerous. The NWS Austin/San Antonio and the City of Austin's ATX Flood Safety page offer real-time alerts, road-closure maps and safety resources, and the local forecast keeps highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday afternoon, according to ATX Flood Safety. Keep an eye on watches and warnings overnight and build in extra time for what could be a slower-than-usual morning drive.
