Ryan Serhant, the Manhattan broker turned media star behind SERHANT., told CNBC that pending home sales are up about 10% over the last four weeks, a sign he says buyers are finally creeping back in after a sluggish spring. His upbeat read on the market landed the same week several major trackers reported a fresh bump in contract activity.
Serhant's CNBC appearance
On CNBC's "The Exchange," Serhant dropped the 10% figure in a conversation with host Kelly Evans, according to CNBC. Viewers were reminded that Serhant is not just a dealmaker but also the founder and CEO of SERHANT. and an executive producer of Netflix's "Owning Manhattan," roles that are highlighted on the firm's site, according to SERHANT.
Data backs a cautious rebound
Rolling four-week figures from Redfin show pending contracts were roughly 9.6% higher year over year in the period ending May 10, pushing activity to its highest level since September 2022, according to Redfin. The brokerage counted about 346,104 seasonally adjusted pending sales in that stretch and pointed to stronger activity in several midsize metros. In other words, Serhant's optimism is not just TV talk, but no one is popping champagne on the data alone.
Rates and official reports
The National Association of REALTORS®' series showed modest month-over-month improvement in April, a trend recap that was highlighted by Realtor.com. Economists say mortgage rates remain the big swing factor for whether that improvement sticks. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate in the mid-6% range in May after it dipped near 6.23% in early April, according to Freddie Mac.
Gains are uneven across metros
Drill into the details and the rebound looks anything but uniform. Redfin's metro-level breakouts show sizable year-over-year jumps in places such as Pittsburgh, Minneapolis and Miami, while only a handful of metros, including Houston, Detroit and Seattle, posted declines, according to Redfin. It adds up to a patchwork recovery rather than a full-blown national boom, which means local inventory and pricing will decide whether Serhant's 10% boost translates into more closed deals in any given city.
What it means for Manhattan buyers and sellers
Manhattan is its own animal. Ultra-luxury condos, older co-ops and smaller condos all move to different rhythms and face very different financing realities. That means a national rise in contracts may not immediately show up in the borough's closing sheets. Analysts at the National Association of REALTORS® and economists quoted by Realtor.com say a real and lasting pickup still depends on a steady flow of new listings and mortgage rates that do not lurch higher again.
What to watch next
In the short run, the market's direction will largely ride on mortgage rates, fresh inventory and the next rounds of weekly and monthly contract data. For the cleanest read on where things are headed, housing watchers are keeping close tabs on rate moves from Freddie Mac and on the National Association of REALTORS® pending home sales releases, according to NAR. For now, Serhant's tally captures the view from an upbeat broker, but analysts caution it is still too early to declare that the housing market is fully back.
