The United Nations' weather agency is sounding a very loud alarm: the next five years are overwhelmingly likely to set new global heat records. Fresh forecasts released May 28 say there is a high probability the planet will repeatedly overshoot the 1.5°C threshold, and that one or more years could come in even hotter than 2024's record. The same outlook flags sharply accelerating Arctic warming and drier conditions in the Amazon that could raise wildfire risk and strain already stressed food and water systems.
What the WMO found
According to the World Meteorological Organization, annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026–2030 are predicted to land between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average. The agency estimates roughly a 75% chance that the 2026–2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C. The update also finds a 91% probability that at least one year in that window will temporarily top 1.5°C, and about an 86% chance that one of those years will be hotter than 2024.
How forecasters arrived at those odds
The findings come from an ensemble of about 200 runs from 13 different climate-modelling centres, as the U.K. Met Office explains in its synthesis for the WMO. Met Office lead author Dr. Leon Hermanson said an El Niño is predicted to form late in 2026, which raises the odds that 2027 could be a record-breaking year, since El Niño episodes tend to push global temperatures up, according to the Met Office.
Arctic amplification and regional risks
The forecast warns the Arctic will warm far faster than the global mean, roughly 3.5 times as fast, speeding up sea-ice loss and related impacts, the Associated Press reported from the WMO update. The agency noted that Arctic winters from 2020–2025 were about 2.1°F warmer than the 1991–2020 average, and projects the next five winters to average roughly 5.1°F above that recent normal.
What regions should watch next
The WMO synthesis also calls for warmer, unusually dry conditions in parts of the Amazon basin that could increase wildfire risk and weaken the forest's carbon-sucking role, while predicting wetter-than-normal seasons in the Sahel and parts of northern Europe and Alaska. Those divergent regional shifts underline how the coming years could bring more intense floods in some places and longer droughts in others, depending on where you live, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Why it matters for cities like New York
With the United Nations headquartered in Manhattan, the update doubles as a local warning that extreme heat is shifting from a once-in-a-while disruption to a structural feature of the climate, U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said in remarks cited by the Associated Press. Scientists stress that even a few tenths of a degree can translate into more heat-related deaths, food-price shocks, and strain on infrastructure, pressures that city planners and utilities are being urged to factor into near-term preparedness and long-term investments.
What to watch and how cities can respond
Forecasters say the evolution of El Niño, along with the WMO's annual temperature bulletins, will be the clearest near-term signals to track. The Met Office and WMO suggest the El Niño could stretch into 2028 and keep global temperatures elevated. Local emergency managers are likely to be the first responders when heat extremes hit, and the report's authors argue that the near-term outlook should sharpen urgency for both emissions reductions and investments in cooling, health systems, and critical infrastructure resilience.
For residents, the practical takeaway is simple enough, if not especially comforting: expect hotter summers ahead. Check local heat alerts, know your cooling options, and look out for heat-vulnerable neighbors. The WMO update makes clear that the next five years will be a stress test for cities, coasts, and forests, and for the measures communities already have in place to cope.
