Diesel prices in San Diego County have climbed to $8.23 a gallon, and for Neil Nagata, a third-generation farmer at Nagata Bros Farms in Oceanside, that number could决定 whether his family's century-old operation makes it to its next harvest, let alone its next hundred years. The farm grows strawberries, blueberries, cherimoyas and vegetables on land his grandfather first worked in 1920, and Nagata says the mounting cost pressure has him questioning whether the business can keep going.
San Diego diesel prices are now $3.19 higher than they were a year ago, when fuel cost $5.04 a gallon, and just last week prices stood at $8.27 a gallon, according to NBC 7 San Diego. That amounts to diesel running nearly 65% higher than this time last year, a jump farmers rely on to run tractors and haul produce to market. Nagata told the station that Nagata Bros Farms has been farming for more than a hundred years, but the family farm may not survive another century if costs do not balance out.
Iran War Fallout Hits Fuel and Fertilizer Together
The station's report ties the spike to the war in Iran, which has pushed up fuel costs and disrupted fertilizer prices and availability, since world fertilizer supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Nagata expects fertilizer prices to increase about 33% as a result. That squeeze lines up with wider industry data: roughly 45 million tons of fertilizer products, including more than 30% of globally traded urea and 45% of sulfur, normally move through the strait, which saw near-total shipping halts after the 2026 Middle East conflict, according to CoBank. Agricultural lenders at CoBank project, per The Western Producer, that U.S. fertilizer prices will stay elevated through at least 2028 given structural damage and feedstock cutbacks at Middle Eastern production facilities.
California's diesel problem is also distinctly its own. The state's average diesel price surpassed $8 a gallon in September, the highest in the nation, compared with a U.S. average around $6, driven by state renewable fuel mandates and refining infrastructure that lacks interstate pipeline connections, according to BNO News. California refineries lean heavily on crude imports that are themselves exposed to global conflict disruptions. Nagata Bros Farms is also facing rising borrowing costs, and Nagata says higher interest rates make continued farm borrowing more concerning.
Washington Weighs a Diesel Export Ban
In September, President Donald Trump proposed restricting U.S. diesel exports to bring down domestic fuel costs for farmers and truckers, a move that drew opposition from European Union officials who warned it could destabilize global fuel markets, as reported by Forbes. The U.S. currently exports about 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day, and any restriction would ripple through markets far beyond Oceanside's strawberry fields. Whether such a policy would arrive in time to help farms like Nagata Bros remains an open question.
Beyond fuel and fertilizer, California farmers already face some of the highest water prices in the nation along with rising labor costs, and strict state regulations make it difficult for California farms to compete with products grown elsewhere, including Mexico. Farmers are price takers, meaning they must accept prices set by global supply and demand rather than passing added costs on to buyers. That dynamic has already reshaped San Diego County's berry industry: commercial strawberry acreage in the county fell from 500 acres in 1995 to just 200 acres by 2021 as housing tracts and commercial development converted farmland, according to the San Diego Floral Association.
A Family Rooted in Oceanside Since Before World War II
The Nagata family's ties to the land predate even Neil Nagata's grandfather's 1920 start. Neil Nagata's father, George Nagata, and the Nagata family were forced into World War II internment camps at Poston, Arizona, losing their farming operations before returning to Oceanside to rebuild the family farm from the ground up, according to California Strawberries. Neil Nagata took over leadership of Nagata Bros Farms in the early 1990s after working alongside his father, later serving as president of the San Diego County Farm Bureau from 2017 to 2019, per Times of San Diego.
For Nagata Bros Farms, sudden shocks in fuel and fertilizer costs leave little room to absorb higher expenses.
Nagata Says He's Staying Optimistic — For Now
Despite the pressure, Nagata told NBC 7 San Diego he remains optimistic about keeping the farm together and moving forward, though he says he needs relief from rising costs soon. He is encouraging the public to support San Diego County agriculture by buying local products. Rising expenses have left him questioning whether the family farm will survive another generation, a concern that echoes broader statewide warnings about labor costs and regulatory pressure squeezing California farm operations, as Hoodline reported in its coverage of the state's farm wage bill reaching Governor Newsom's desk.
